In today’s briefing:
- CHARTING COURSE: Comparing the U.S. And China Economies
- Twilight of the AI Bull?
- AI Productivity and the Promised Land
- Actinver Research – Economic Package 2026
- Actinver Research – Industrial Activity (July 2025)
CHARTING COURSE: Comparing the U.S. And China Economies
- China’s economy outshines the U.S. economy on nearly all metrics, yet its stock markets continue to trade at a substantial discount. That is beginning to change.
- Net International Investment Position of U.S. reversed in 1Q25 by $2 trillion, the largest net outflow in history. In China, onshore repatriation is increasing adding pressure for a stronger CNY.
- China’s significant household savings continue to provide a cushion for the government program to deleverage the economy.
Twilight of the AI Bull?
- The leadership of AI-driven stocks is starting to stumble from bubbly valuation levels, which brings up the warning from Bob Farrell’s Rule #4.
- The debate is ongoing as to whether the AI bull is evolving from hyperscaler leadership to the next phase of companies that can better exploit the technology.
- The lack of cyclical market leadership is concerning from a technical perspective. We are therefore tactically cautious about the short-term outlook for U.S. equities.
AI Productivity and the Promised Land
- There has been a lot of excitement over the productivity-enhancing promise of artificial intelligence.
- We need to distinguish between how AI affects the economy, and how the benefits of AI adoption are divided between all of the participants in the value chain.
- It may be time to look for AI 2.0 investment plays or industries that are likely to capture more of the value of the AI revolution.
Actinver Research – Economic Package 2026
- After a year of fiscal consolidation, in 2026 public spending will return to growth to address pending needs.
- To achieve this, the Government will rely on a combination of new revenue sources and increased financing.
- As a result, debt is expected to remain stable, at around 4.0% of GDP.
Actinver Research – Industrial Activity (July 2025)
- In July, industrial activity posted a -1.2% MoM contraction, reflecting weakness in the manufacturing sector.
- Mining stood out with a rebound across all of its components.
- The observed figure came in below our estimate of -0.3% MoM and the market consensus of -0.2% MoM.
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