In today’s briefing:
- Credit For Inflation
- Oil futures: Crude eases as OPEC+ hike reports offset sanctions
- CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan
- CX Daily: China’s Growing Trade of Unused ‘Used’ Cars Threatens Automakers’ Global Expansion
- UK Active Funds Face a Benchmark Blowout in 2025
- Fed Cuts Amid “Data Fog”; Path Ahead Uncertain
- BoC Cuts to 2.25%: End or Pause?
- Kerala Farmers Firm On Higher Floor Prices As Market Prices Keep Steady
Credit For Inflation
- Credit and monetary holdings are booming in the UK, enabling consumers to spend their devalued pounds, supporting CPI inflation beyond the target.
- Falling rates have neutered the refinancing shock, facilitating the affordability of loan demand. Rapid ongoing wage growth further reduces the debt burden.
- The ECB also sees bullish monetary trends, but they only took it to a good place. The BoE is not in a good place, with policy accommodating above-target inflation pressures.
Oil futures: Crude eases as OPEC+ hike reports offset sanctions
- Crude oil futures were rowing back Tuesday, with OPEC+ set to further raise output and uncertainty over sanctions enforcement.
- Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.28/b (2020 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $65.62/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.01/b against a previous close of $61.31/b.
- But reports that OPEC+ will go ahead with a ninth consecutive production hike were seen limiting further price upside for now.
CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan
- China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and manufacturing as top priorities.
- The nation’s banks will be instrumental in providing consumption financing to spur a virtual growth driver for the economy. Easing monetary policies will be in addition to the trade-in programs.
- Consumer in service sectors like e-commerce, travel & tourism, healthcare, elderly care and AI will benefit from increasing consumption. Local brands stand to gain market share against foreign competitors.
CX Daily: China’s Growing Trade of Unused ‘Used’ Cars Threatens Automakers’ Global Expansion
- Autos /In Depth: China’s Growing Trade of Unused ‘Used’ Cars Threatens Automakers’ Global Expansion
- Forex /: China to Roll Out New Policies to Ease Forex Transactions for Trade, Investment
- Personnel /: China Taps Three Coastal Officials for Vice Minister Roles
UK Active Funds Face a Benchmark Blowout in 2025
- Active UK funds gained +11.75% through Q3, lagging the FTSE All Share ETF’s +15.9%—a 4.15% gap, with nearly 75% of managers underperforming.
- Value strategies led returns (+16.6%), while Aggressive Growth funds averaged just +4.5%.
- Key underweights in Rolls-Royce, HSBC, BAE Systems and BATS cost roughly 3% in relative performance.
Fed Cuts Amid “Data Fog”; Path Ahead Uncertain
- The Fed’s 25bp rate cut to 3.75–4.00% was anticipated, with the decision reflecting rising labour market risks amid the data fog.
- Policy outlook hinges on future data. Inflation remains sticky, but the labour market weakening drove today’s pre-emptive move.
- A pause in QT’s asset runoff demonstrates heightened caution. December’s decision is “not on a preset course”.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
BoC Cuts to 2.25%: End or Pause?
- The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.25%, matching the consensus, and signals the current rate is about right to sustain 2% inflation.
- Structural damage from tariffs limits further monetary easing. Fiscal policy is expected to carry the economic support burden ahead.
- Economists are divided: some see the cycle complete at 2.25%, others forecast further cuts to 1.75-2.0% if growth disappoints materially.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Kerala Farmers Firm On Higher Floor Prices As Market Prices Keep Steady
- Prices fail to breach INR200/kg mark making farmers unhappy
- GST cut benefit to percolate to the rubber market soon
- Demand to extend World Bank replanting aid to all Kerala districts
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