In today’s briefing:
- CX Daily: Chinese AI Startups Make Gains in Challenge to U.S.-based OpenAI
- IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/01]: IO Poised for Recovery
- CrossASEAN Ground Zero – Let the Quest Begin
- Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Deep Value, >35% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 2.5x PE/0.3 EV-EBITDA on Ramp Up
- Monday Macro: Happy New Year
- Food Prices Went Up Again in 2024 // Neutral Sentiment in Oil & Gas Industry
CX Daily: Chinese AI Startups Make Gains in Challenge to U.S.-based OpenAI
- AI / Cover Story: Chinese AI startups make gains in challenge to U.S.-based OpenAI
- PMI /China’s services sector buoyed by stronger demand, Caixin PMI shows
- Batteries /China to restrict exports of lithium battery technologies
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/01]: IO Poised for Recovery
- SGX IO Futures closed USD 0.35/ton lower for the week ending on 03/Jan. It traded in a range of USD 4.35/ton, which was smaller than the prior week.
- For the week ending 03/Jan, China’s port iron ore stockpiles rose 0.2% WoW to 145.22 million tons, while daily imported ore pick-up volume fell 47k tons to 3.08 million tons.
- FIIs hold a net long position of 130.6k lots across all futures and options expiries. Managed Money and Physical market participants are net short by 19.6k and 82.1k lots, respectively.
CrossASEAN Ground Zero – Let the Quest Begin
- We look at the major themes and challenges for listed tech stocks in Southeast Asia including Sea Ltd, GoTo Gojek Tokopedia, Grab Holdings, Global Digital Niaga (BELI), and Bukalapak.
- Profitability remains the key quest all in 2025, with only Sea Ltd achieving this in a true and sustainable manner, with Grab moving closer ahead of GoTo, BELI, and BUKA.
- Increasing take rates through seizing more of the value chain in logistics and advertising is another trend, with Fintech a core focus in shifting the needle on profitability and cross-selling
Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Deep Value, >35% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 2.5x PE/0.3 EV-EBITDA on Ramp Up
- Fenix Resources (FEX AU) will increase production from 1.4 to 4.1 million tons annually in early CY25, placing it at 2.5x PE/0.3x EV-EBITDA FY26e (~100 USD/ton iron ore px assumption).
- On our estimates, if the company pays no dividend and capex is 60 mn AUD in both FY25 and FY26, net cash>market capitalization. (Conclusion: Board Pays Dividend)
- We will look for the next quarterly production update for more color this month. Read our last update Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts
Monday Macro: Happy New Year
- I thought we’d start by looking at what moved the markets in 2024.
- The table below, in the form of a heat map, looks at returns (sorted by 2024 YTD returns) for a bunch of major indices and asset classes.
- The stand-out number for me is that of Bitcoin, up an astonishing 111%, with the NASDAQ Composite a long way behind on a price return (not including dividends) of ‘just’ 32%.
Food Prices Went Up Again in 2024 // Neutral Sentiment in Oil & Gas Industry
The FAO Food Price Index stood at 127.0 points in December 2024, down 0.6 points (0.5%) from its November level.
The index stood 8.0 points (6.7%) above its corresponding level one year ago, yet remained 33.2 points (20.7%) below the peak reached in March 2022.
While the news is dominated by sky-high cocoa and coffee prices, you can clearly see from the data that on the one hand, vegetable oil prices were a primary driver of higher food prices throughout the year.
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