In today’s briefing:
- CX Daily: Congo’s Cobalt Controls Deepen Uncertainty for Chinese Miner
- Macro and Rates Strategy: Global Central Bank Divergence and Futures Ideas
- Oil futures: Crude resumes price slide as IEA trims demand forecast
- Actinver Research – Inflation (2h-Sep)
- Actinver Research – Mexican Peso Trading
- Actinver Research – Employment (August 2025)
- Exencial Economy Tidings 15/10/2025
- Actinver Research – Mexico Equity Research: 3Q25 Preview
- Actinver Research – Fixed Investment (July 2025)
- Actinver Research – Industrial Activity (August 2025)
CX Daily: Congo’s Cobalt Controls Deepen Uncertainty for Chinese Miner
- TOP STORIES Cobalt / In Depth: Congo’s Cobalt Controls Deepen Uncertainty for Chinese Miner It has been a rough year for the world’s largest cobalt producer.
- Shanghai-listed CMOC Group Ltd.
- ’s sales fell over 17% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to the miner’s earnings results.
Macro and Rates Strategy: Global Central Bank Divergence and Futures Ideas
- Global central banks are diverging in their monetary policies, with some easing rates while others, like Japan, maintain ultra-loose stances, creating unique market dynamics and potential for strategic plays.
- Anticipated convergence of short-term U.S. and Japanese interest rates through 2026 is expected to influence currency strength with expected cross asset implications in equities.
- Analysis of SOFR and US T-Note futures indicates potential for strategic positioning based on anticipated rate cycle acceleration and yield curve movements.
Oil futures: Crude resumes price slide as IEA trims demand forecast
- Crude oil futures were under pressure again Tuesday despite an easing of tensions between the US and China, with benchmarks unable to hold early-week gains.
- Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.53/b (2005 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $63.32/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $58.84/b against a previous close of $59.49/b.
- Prices were again testing multi-month lows, as short-term volatility persisted amid tariffs, sanctions and OPEC+ policy.
Actinver Research – Inflation (2h-Sep)
- During the second half of September, inflation stood at 0.02% biweekly, reflecting lower pressures in goods and agricultural products.
- As a result, annual inflation rose to 3.76%, signaling the fading of the favorable base effect observed in July.
- Typically, inflation for this period averages around 0.07% bw.
Actinver Research – Mexican Peso Trading
- The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) triennial survey highlights the continued expansion of global foreign exchange activity.
- The Mexican peso reaffirmed its relevance, ranking among the most actively traded currencies worldwide and consolidating its position as one of the leading currencies within emerging markets.
- According to the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey on foreign exchange markets (April 2025), global FX trading volumes increased by 28% compared with the 2022 survey, reaching an average daily turnover of USD 9.6 trillion.
Actinver Research – Employment (August 2025)
- In August, the unemployment rate rose to 2.93%, its highest level in a year, confirming that labor market conditions continue to weaken.
- The increase reflected both a decline in labor force participation and the loss of 1.3 million jobs.
- Typically, the unemployment rate for August stands around 2.75%.
Exencial Economy Tidings 15/10/2025
- Unemployment rate inched up to 5.2% in Sep 2025: PLFS
- US seeks changes in FDI policy for online market places
- Digital NBFCs dominate 80% of personal loan volumes in June 2025 quarter
Actinver Research – Mexico Equity Research: 3Q25 Preview
- A meaningful recovery is still pending; soft conditions across most industries remain, with weather headwinds and FX impacting some companies.
- For yet another quarter, we forecast average margin contraction for our covered companies, a trend that seems to be lingering for the rest of the year.
- In Consumer, we are mostly lowering our PTs, -2% on a median basis, as we expect continued consumer softness in both Mexico and the U.S.; FX is expected to be less of a factor YoY.
Actinver Research – Fixed Investment (July 2025)
- Gross fixed investment rebounded by 1.6% MoM in July, supported by a strong increase in imported transportation equipment (+23.5% MoM), which suggests stronger external demand and the need to expand productive capacity amid the solid momentum of exports.
- In July, fixed investment grew 1.6% MoM, compared to our forecast of 0.9% MoM and the consensus estimate of 1.0% MoM.
- The machinery and equipment component expanded 4.9% MoM, with gains in both the national segment (+2.4% MoM) and the imported segment (+5.9% MoM).
Actinver Research – Industrial Activity (August 2025)
- Industrial activity continued to show signs of weakness, contracting -0.3% MoM in August and marking three consecutive months of decline.
- The slowdown was mainly driven by reduced momentum in construction due to lower civil engineering activity.
- The result was below our estimate of 0.5% MoM and the market consensus of 0.4% MoM.
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