In today’s briefing:
- [ETP 2025/06] WTI Pressured by Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Henry Hub Rebounds on Colder Forecasts
- How to Revert The U.S. Trade Deficit to Surplus
- U.S. January Nonfarm Payroll
- Actinver Research – CEMEX: Reaching a record level in Net Income in 2024 (Quick View)
- Helixtap China Report: China Navigates Uncertain Rubber Market Amid US Tariff Tensions
- HEW: More Neutral Policy Settings
- Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (07 Februray 2025)
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Jan (Forecast)
- CX Daily: Billionaire Investment Banker Bao Fan May Face Bribery Charges, Sources Say
[ETP 2025/06] WTI Pressured by Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Henry Hub Rebounds on Colder Forecasts
- For the week ending 31/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 8.7m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2.4m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.
- US natural gas inventories fell by 174 Bcf for the week ending 31/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 167 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.4% below the 5-year seasonal average.
- TotalEnergies’ Q4 adjusted earnings rose 8.1% QoQ and beat estimates by 4.8% led by robust growth in the LNG and Integrated Power divisions.
How to Revert The U.S. Trade Deficit to Surplus
- New U.S. trade deals will likely make slow progress in reducing bilateral trade deficits as the underlying drivers behind the U.S. trade deficit are macro forces.
- While the U.S. economy outperforms other major trading partners; the value of the USD remains overvalued
- As long as tariffs are not high enough to undermine comparative advantage of importing countries, the U.S. will struggle to reduce the size of the trade deficit.
U.S. January Nonfarm Payroll
- January’s non-farm payroll with a 143k increase is on the low side of expectations, though we suspect January data was restrained by bad weather.
- January’s non-farm payroll with a 143k increase is on the low side of expectations, though we suspect January data was restrained by bad weather.
- Unemployment slipped to 4.0% from 4.1%, with weather restraining the labor force more than employment.
Actinver Research – CEMEX: Reaching a record level in Net Income in 2024 (Quick View)
- Total revenues decreased by 5% to US$3.8 Bn, while EBITDA dropped 3% (or +3% on a like-to-like basis) to US$681 M, slightly above the consensus estimate of US$673 M and slightly below our US$692 M estimate.
- On the other hand, the net profit of US$48 M compares positively to the US$441 M net loss in 4Q23, while in 2024, the company reached a US$939 M net profit, a record level for CEMEX.
- CEMEX’s EBITDA margin during the quarter was 17.9% (vs. 17.5% in 4Q23), implying a 0.4 pp.
Helixtap China Report: China Navigates Uncertain Rubber Market Amid US Tariff Tensions
- Trade war impacts the market sentiment
- Arbitrage widens for international cargoes
- Lower inventory could bring some buying back
HEW: More Neutral Policy Settings
- New neutral estimates for the UK and Euro area suggest policy is less tight, if at all, urging caution. The BoE unsurprisingly cut again but with a shockingly dovish dissent for 50bp. A strong US labour market and EA inflation sustain cyclical hawkish pressure.
- Next week’s thin European data calendar leaves UK GDP data as a focal point despite it suffering residual seasonality. US inflation data are more globally relevant, though unlikely to impact monetary policy decisions from the Philippines or Peru.
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Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (07 Februray 2025)
- Hong Kong equity boost this week may imply longer positive rally down the road.
- In US market, there are a number of individual firms that have rallied over at least 10% this week.
- Today marks the day for nonfarm payrolls, which may direct not only the equity market but also gives guidance to Fed policies in coming months.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Jan (Forecast)
- We expect inflation for the second half of January to be at 0.16% bw, as prices of agricultural products would have continued to decline.
- The forecast of 0.16% bw is slightly below the historical 0.20% bw for this period, as we expect a -0.33% bw contraction in non-core inflation (historical average of +0.10% bw).
- Our price monitoring shows a generalized reduction in agricultural and meat & egg prices, which would be partially offset by the increase in energy prices.
CX Daily: Billionaire Investment Banker Bao Fan May Face Bribery Charges, Sources Say
- Investment banks / Exclusive: Billionaire investment banker Bao Fan may face bribery charges, sources say
- Vaccine /MSD halts supply of HPV vaccine to China after slump in demand
- Holiday /Analysis: Record Lunar New Year travel boosts consumer spending
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