Daily BriefsMacro

Daily Brief Macro: From Gene Hackman to Bitcoin: Signals and more

In today’s briefing:

  • From Gene Hackman to Bitcoin: Signals, Sell-Offs, and Discipline | The New Barbarians #010
  • ECB: Meaningfully Less Restrictive
  • German Rubber Industry In The Throes Of Crisis As Relocations Loom
  • Hong Kong Economics: Challenges Go Beyond Stubborn Deficits
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 7 Mar 2025
  • Malaysia: Policy Rate Held At 3.0% (Consensus 3.0%) in Mar-25
  • CX Daily: China’s GDP Target Unchanged as Deficit Projection Hits Record High


From Gene Hackman to Bitcoin: Signals, Sell-Offs, and Discipline | The New Barbarians #010

By William Mann

  • Episode 10 of New Barbarians podcast covers recent events and discusses Gene Hackman’s passing
  • Mark Connors shares insights on investors seeking certainty and compares them to characters in Gene Hackman’s movies
  • Trump’s statements on Truth social and implications for the crypto market are analyzed, drawing parallels to themes of integrity and leadership in Hoosiers.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


ECB: Meaningfully Less Restrictive

By Phil Rush

  • The ECB’s sixth 25bp deposit rate cut to 2.5% was unsurprising, and its characterisation of policy as meaningfully less restrictive leaned towards our relatively hawkish view.
  • Policy rates may already be close to neutral. Looser fiscal policy plans also pressure monetary policy to follow a tighter path than would otherwise have been necessary.
  • We still expect the ECB to hold rates in April, which is no longer a controversial call. A final 25bp ECB cut in June remains in our outlook (BoE cuts in May and Fed on hold).

German Rubber Industry In The Throes Of Crisis As Relocations Loom

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  One in five companies in rubber industry mulling shifting in 2025  
  • Regulatory burdens and high energy costs among major concerns  
  •  Place ‘first-touch principle’ in EUDR, erase reverse burden of proof  

Hong Kong Economics: Challenges Go Beyond Stubborn Deficits

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Sticky spending pressures and the property slump’s drag on public revenues mean that the region’s return to pre-pandemic surpluses remains elusive. 
  • The deficits, however, are symptoms of the region relying on a growth playbook that may no longer be viable, given the changing nature of Hong Kong’s economic position
  • With the rest of the world becoming less inclined to treat Hong Kong differently from mainland China, the government’s failure to uphold its “second system” may prove costly.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 7 Mar 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • Global economic uncertainty is rising, leading to reduced investment and potential recession risks in the U.S. and Europe.
  • China’s property sector stabilizes, with investment expected to drive future economic growth despite trade tensions.
  • Japan’s GDP growth may be overstated due to miscalculated capital spending data, with revisions expected in the next release.

Malaysia: Policy Rate Held At 3.0% (Consensus 3.0%) in Mar-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • Despite global uncertainties, Bank Negara Malaysia maintained the policy rate at 3%, citing sustained economic resilience, robust domestic demand, and investment activity. The 5.1% GDP growth in 2024 supports the decision, although external risks remain.
  • Inflationary pressures remain contained, with headline inflation at 1.7% in early 2025, supported by easing global cost conditions and lower commodity prices. However, upside risks persist from domestic policy spillovers and external factors, including financial market volatility and trade policy shifts.
  • The ringgit remains influenced by external factors, with narrowing interest rate differentials providing support amid global uncertainty. The MPC’s data-dependent approach ensures monetary policy remains conducive to growth while preserving price stability.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

CX Daily: China’s GDP Target Unchanged as Deficit Projection Hits Record High

By Caixin Global

  • Two Sessions /Two Sessions: China’s GDP target unchanged as deficit projection hits record high
  • Metro /In Depth: Investigators find city’s metro system is riddled with graft
  • Huawei /: With an eye on AI, Huawei plans deeper expansion in Qatar

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