Daily Brief Macro: Gas Markets See Divergence Due to Weather and more

• Henry Hub surged on cold forecasts and record LNG demand, while TTF stayed soft due to tepid demand. Weather and LNG flows now drive a volatile winter spread.
• The Henry Hub–TTF spread faces exceptional uncertainty, shaped by diverging regional fundamentals. Henry Hub remains sensitive to U.S. forecast shifts, while TTF is anchored by strong EU storage.
• With weather driving short-term volatility, the spread remains highly unpredictable. Even steady U.S.–Europe LNG flows offer only partial stability as shifting forecasts and regional imbalances continue to reshape price dynamics.

Highlights

• Indonesian rubber exports worth over US$250 million in Sept

• Asia drives demand as US tariffs mellow to pave the way

• Prices firm but volatility persists with weather risks and soft demand

  Though the major consumer, China, tracked impressive increases in August and September compared to July, September witnessed a decline from the second-highest levels of the year in August, in both value and volume.

• Crude oil futures Wednesday were climbing higher amid a deteriorating geopolitical situation, although ongoing concerns over a growing surplus kept prices withing the recent narrow band.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $62.70/b (2009 GMT) versus Tuesday’s settle of $62.45/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $58.98/b against a previous close of $59.32/b.
• However, both benchmarks had traded higher earlier in the day.