Daily Brief Macro: Global Commodities: Hypothetically and more

• Concerns raised in D.C. about potential restrictions on expatriating funds, taxes, and foreign ownership of treasuries
• International investors expressing preference for investing in private assets over U.S. Treasuries
• Potential increase in gold prices due to redirection of foreign assets into gold, with estimates suggesting a 33% boost in quarterly gold demand and historical relationship between demand and prices.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Riyadh is rapidly reducing cuts to oil output, perceived as an attempt to push out high-cost producers like US shale.
• The success of this strategy is uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of tariff-related economic factors.
• This situation mirrors the uncertainty faced during the 2014-16 period, despite changes in crude oil prices.

• Smarter Markets podcast discusses outlook for silver in energy transition and investor portfolios with Michael Duranzo, President and CEO at the Silver Institute
• Recent conversation at India Silver Conference focused on silver’s underperformance compared to gold, supply deficit, and opportunities for investment in silver market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Fed’s focus on keeping inflation expectations well anchored, stable rates markets after meeting
• Market optimism over potential trade deals with UK and China, potential tariff rate reduction
• Forecast for US Rates largely unchanged, expect labor market weakness prompt Fed response, adjusted yield forecasts reflecting later start to easing and elevated uncertainty

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• WTI futures rose 4.7% for the week ending 09/May, aided by easing U.S.-China trade tensions, lower U.S. output, and falling crude inventories.
• The U.S. rig count fell by six to 578. The oil rig count fell by five to 474, while gas rigs remained flat at 101.
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.81 on 09/May from 0.84 on 02/May. Call OI rose by 4% WoW, while put OI inched up 1.2%.

• For the week ending 09/May, U.S. natural gas prices rose by 4.6% on the back of lower output, higher LNG exports, and improved demand outlook.
• For the week ending 02/May, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 104 Bcf, moderately higher than analyst expectations of a 103 Bcf build.
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.92 on 09/May compared to 0.94 on 02/May. Call OI increased by 4% WoW, while put OI grew by 2%.

• Let’s not join the crowd of those happy to bash on experts, specialists, economists of all kind.
• It is true though for example that 3 years ago, after Putin launched its special military operation in Ukraine and the following harsh sanctions, most predicted that Russia’s economy would shrink by 10 to 15 % and the currency to collapse.
• It did go down by ..1.5 % in the first year and then recovered nicely showing growth for the past two years above 4 % ; the currency initially weakened and then recovered stronger. 

• In the third quarter of 2024, Japan’s economy grew by 0.90% (QoQ).
• This growth was primarily driven by an increase in real private final consumption expenditure, which rose by approximately 3.58% QoQ.
• Additionally, real government final consumption expenditure contributed to the growth, increasing by about 2.05% QoQ.

• Jan-Mar 2025 shipments for Australian miners RIO AU, BHP AU, and FMG AU  were sluggish, registering -9.3%,-4.3%, and 0.4% YoY, respectively, due to inclement weather.
• Vale (VALE US) shipments were comparatively better, up 3.6% YoY to 66.1 mn tons. The big four kept their annual production guidance intact. 
• Positive news came from Vales China clients, as blast furnace utilization passed 90%, and some mills are now making cash profits of 200 RMB/ton. 

• Initial bearish outlook on Asian effects due to President Trump’s tariff storm
• Unexpected multi sigma moves in Asian currencies, sparking speculation of currency accord
• Uncertainty surrounding flow types, behavior of Asian exporters, and Asian central banks, with key questions hanging over China’s influence on Asian FX appreciation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.