Daily Brief Macro: Gold Goes Vertical and more

• Tether has bought significant amounts of gold, acquiring 19 tonnes in the first half of the year
• Gold prices have surged, surpassing $4000 an ounce and hitting $6000 Australian dollars per ounce
• The market is seeing a shift towards gold as a safe haven asset amidst ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties

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• Gold and bitcoin are both scarce assets that are gaining renewed attention as investors seek resilience in their portfolios
• Gold has a long history as a store of value and tends to come into focus during uncertain times, while bitcoin is a newer digital asset with evolving investor access
• Factors such as economic growth, geopolitical risks, and interest rates can impact the attractiveness of gold and other non-yielding assets in a portfolio

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Tensions between China and the U.S. have increased. Last week’s tit-for-tat exchanges culminated with President Trump threatening China with higher tariff rates and a cancellation of his meeting with Xi.
• Trump’s Friday post on social media immediately caused U.S. markets to swoon with the S&P breaking support levels.  In a TACO trade moment, Trump reversed his harsh rhetoric on Sunday.
• Anyone can speculate on what the next few weeks will look like for markets, but we believe the market may start pricing in more long-term risk.

• Hype surrounding the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) has increased in 2025, despite a slowing economy. While new economy sectors have contributed to growth,  not all is AI-related.
• There are valid comparisons between the current environment and the late 1990s surrounding hype about the beneficial impact of technological innovation on corporate performance. S&P500 leadership is priced to perfection.
• Current US equity leadership valuations are exposed to threats over the next 9 months, including stress in credit markets due to high bond issuance by companies in AI-related activity.

• Crude oil futures were sharply lower Friday, extending the previous session’s losses as oversupply fears and tariffs returned, while the Gaza ceasefire was seen eroding the risk premium.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.71/b (2003 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $65.02/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $58.81/b against a previous close of $61.51/b.
• Thursday’s selloff had already wiped out most of the week’s steady gains amid a growing chorus flagging concerns over a significant oil surplus for this quarter and beyond, while additional losses Friday dragged benchmarks down to fresh four-month lows.

• Cocoa Update: Analysts say the retreat reflects a drop-off in consumer demand as a result of the higher prices, as well as expectations of a better crop given improved weather and higher state-guaranteed prices in West Africa.
• In addition, speculators who had previously been riding the rally have more recently dumped their positions, with many now betting on falling prices.
• Those supply fears have now started to ease.