Daily Brief Macro: HEW: Dovish Bias Dominates and more

• The evidential hurdle formally shifted in support of a Fed rate cut in September. Still, the data may yet discourage it, or embolden the market to price it as mistaken.
• Flash PMIs broadly reinforced the resilience narrative, while another upside UK inflation surprise sets the BoE up to resist cutting amid persistently excessive expectations.
• A quieter, bank holiday-shortened week leaves the BOK and BSP decisions as monetary policy highlights. Euro area M3 and some national flash HICP prints are our data focus.

• Euro area core inflation may slip to 2.1% in August and stay there in September, with pressure likely coming later in the fourth quarter from wages and goods inflation.
• Headline inflation in the Euro area is forecasted to fall to 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, with core inflation at 2.1% and further declines expected by the end of 2026.
• UK headline inflation is expected to rise to 4% CPI in September before moderating, with front end UK inflation breakevens declining but offering value at these levels.

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