In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Heavy Hitters Pulling Punches
- Oil futures: Crude surges 5% as US sanctions Russia’s Rosneft, Lukoil
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 24 Oct 2025
- US: Inflation Edges Up, but Previous Policy Errors Must Be Atoned with Rate Cut Now
- Overview #38 Precious Metals – Has the Fat Lady Sung?
- Actinver Research – Inflation (1h-Oct)
- Thailand Makes Marginal Gains As Tariff Spell Lingers Over Rubber Market
HEW: Heavy Hitters Pulling Punches
- Sentiment stabilised this week as credit issues are realised to be more of a long-term problem than an imminent issue. Indonesia and Korea hawkishly held their policy rates.
- Inflation undershot final expectations in the UK and US, yet constitutes less excess rather than outright weakness, and merely aligns with slightly earlier forecasts.
- Next week’s release calendar has some heavy hitters, but pulling their punches. The Fed cut and ECB hold are widely expected, as is a marginal slowing in EA inflation.
Oil futures: Crude surges 5% as US sanctions Russia’s Rosneft, Lukoil
- Crude oil futures were sharply higher Thursday after the US sanctioned Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, in a renewed bid to starve Moscow of revenues to fund its war with Ukraine.
- Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.89/b (2053 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $62.59/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $61.67/b against a previous close of $58.50/b.
- The announcement by the US Treasury was seen as the most decisive action yet during President Trump’s administration, with Lukoil and Rosneft directly controlling more than half of Moscow’s exports.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 24 Oct 2025
- China: Growth Slows, Stimulus Likely Ahead: Q3 GDP rose 4.8% YoY, below earlier quarters and forecasts (previously expected 5.5% FY growth, now trimmed to 5.1%).
- Japan: Policy Stagnation and Structural Decline: New LDP leader and PM, Mrs. Takaichi, signals more of the same “Abenomics” playbook — fiscal stimulus and ultra-low rates.
- Regional and Market Sentiment: The Bangkok roundtable consensus was broadly cautious — China’s sub-5% growth outlook and Southeast Asia’s softening momentum weighed on sentiment.
US: Inflation Edges Up, but Previous Policy Errors Must Be Atoned with Rate Cut Now
- CPI inflation edged up to 3%YoY in Sep’25, after a 0.3%MoM increase. Markets cheered, as these were lower than expectations, but MoM-annualized inflation is running well above the 2% target.
- The Powell Fed’s politically-driven 75bp of rate cuts in Sep-Nov’24 are now obliging it to effectively move to a 3%YoY inflation target; a 25bp rate cut is inevitable next week.
- Base money contracted US$88.8bn in Mar-Aug’25, so M2 growth was modest (4.8%YoY). But the rise in crude prices (post-Russian sanctions) will raise inflation past 3%, precluding any Dec’25 rate cut.
Overview #38 Precious Metals – Has the Fat Lady Sung?
- A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
- A correction has finally started in the precious metals space
- What to do now in the sector for both the short and long term
Actinver Research – Inflation (1h-Oct)
- In the first half of October, inflation stood at 0.28% bw, reflecting lower pressures on goods and agricultural products.
- As a result, annual headline inflation fell to 3.63%, creating room for Banco de México to continue its easing cycle.
- Typically, inflation for this fortnight averages around 0.40% bw.
Thailand Makes Marginal Gains As Tariff Spell Lingers Over Rubber Market
- July to August export volume increases but returns drop
- Chinese exports pick up as it strikes deal with the US
- Malaysia, Japan too cash in on lowering of US tariffs
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