Daily BriefsMacro

Daily Brief Macro: HEW: Macro Hokey Pokey and more

In today’s briefing:

  • HEW: Macro Hokey Pokey
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 30 May 2025
  • CX Daily: Court Sounds Alarm About Corruption in Big Tech
  • Strong Monsoon Over Key Rubber Producing Nations
  • India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar’25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year


HEW: Macro Hokey Pokey

By Phil Rush

  • Markets danced the Hokey Pokey to a drumbeat of lawfare and whimsical Presidential decrees. Tariffs were in, out, out, in, with tired pricing relatively unchanged overall.
  • Underlying GDP trends remain unbroken by the disruptive announcements of recent months, with the superior US productivity performance still internationally enticing.
  • Next week’s ECB rate cut remains one of the least uncertain macro stories. However, guidance should be much more hesitant about cutting again, while leaning that way.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 30 May 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • U.S. Q1 GDP fell slightly, distorted by a sharp 42% surge in imports ahead of tariff changes.

  • Korea cut rates to 2.5%, with further easing expected to support weak investment.

  • Global trade disruptions continue to fuel economic uncertainty and complicate forecasting.


CX Daily: Court Sounds Alarm About Corruption in Big Tech

By Caixin Global

  • Corruption / In Depth: Court sounds alarm about corruption in big tech.
  • It revealed that in the four years through 2024 the court handled 127 criminal cases involving corruption in the industry.
  • The district hosts many internet companies’ offices, both headquarters and local branches.

Strong Monsoon Over Key Rubber Producing Nations

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia to receive above normal rains  
  • Neutral phase of ENSO with La Nina like pattern favoring rains  
  •  Weather portends a reasonable production season for Ivory Coast  

India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar’25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • Real GDP grew 7.4%YoY in Q4/FY25 with PCE and GFCF growing 7%+, bringing FY25 growth to 6.5%, and the 4yr moving average of real GDP growth to 8.25% for FY22-FY25. 
  • Manufacturing decelerated to 4.5% growth in FY25 (from 12.3% in FY24), as high interest rates constrained GFCF, until a 25bp cut in Feb’25 enabled GFCF to rebound 9.4% in Q4/FY25.
  • With interest rates set to decline 100bp from Apr-Dec’25, GFCF should grow 10.5% in FY26, while PCE accelerates to 7.5% growth, enabling real GDP to grow 8.5% in FY26.

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