In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Micro Risk Off
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Nov 2025
- Malaysia Politics: Court Ruling Sets Country on Path to Fiscal Decentralisation
- Middle East FX, November 21st 2025
HEW: Micro Risk Off
- Risk assets have suffered, despite decent Nvidia results suggesting AI demand hasn’t turned yet, and the macro data remaining resilient. Fears are more theme-specific.
- US labour market activity entered the shutdown solidly, and low jobless claims suggest it survived fine. Meanwhile, UK inflation only lost a little excess, and our forecast rose.
- Next week’s UK Budget is the lowlight of our week, but it may struggle to live up to all the noisy hype. Sneaky backloaded tax hikes will close the latest forecast hole again.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Nov 2025
U.S. data releases are expected to clarify economic conditions while political pressure complicates monetary policy sentiment.
Japan’s new leadership has escalated geopolitical tensions with China through unnecessary provocative statements.
Asian growth remains mixed but resilient, led by strong performances in Vietnam, India, Taiwan, and Malaysia.
Malaysia Politics: Court Ruling Sets Country on Path to Fiscal Decentralisation
- A High Court ruling has affirmed Sabah’s constitutional entitlement of 40% of state-derived revenues. The ruling exerts fiscal and political pressure on the federal government.
- The ruling is part of a structural trend where East Malaysian states have used their leverage over the federal government to push for greater policy autonomy.
- While a fiscal or political crisis is not imminent, the ruling may accelerate a shift in Malaysia towards a more federal, decentralised model of economic policymaking.
Middle East FX, November 21st 2025
- Saudi’s Crown Prince successful visit in Washington.
- Housing costs still driving inflation in GCC.
- Construction an important part of Saudi activity. FX, watch out for the year-end turn.
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