In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Rate Surprises In The US Void
- ACFTA 3.0: Greater Integration Likely, but Who Benefits?
- [IO Technicals] Near-Term Rally Fuelled by Restocking and Planned Output Cuts
- Tariffs, EUDR Delay, Weather, Weak Demand Weigh On Thailand’s Rubber Outlook
- CX Daily: Chinese Firms Face Shifting Global IPO Landscape
HEW: Rate Surprises In The US Void
- Most central bank decisions surprised consensus expectations this week, despite the void over the US situation. Neutral rate views often contributed to the directional news.
- The Fed is encouraged to ease by the lack of evidence not to, stimulating market values further. The UK government is suffering from another likely downgrade to productivity.
- Next week’s calendar is thinned by the possible delay of the US CPI data, leaving the EA as the inflationary highlight. The UK gets a potentially hawkish labour market report.
ACFTA 3.0: Greater Integration Likely, but Who Benefits?
- As the US retreats from rules-based trade under Trump 2.0, China and ASEAN’s commitment to an upgraded ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA 3.0) underscores their support for openness.
- While ASEAN’s integration with China has boosted trade and investment, import surges of low-cost products are squeezing ASEAN’s manufacturers and heightening dependence on Chinese capital is raising geopolitical risks.
- ACFTA 3.0 could deepen digital and services linkages, but its economic pay-off for ASEAN hinges on technology transfer, local supply-chain integration, and balanced FDI.
[IO Technicals] Near-Term Rally Fuelled by Restocking and Planned Output Cuts
- Iron ore futures rallied as Chinese steel mills restocked post-Golden Week holiday, despite weak margins and persisting trade policy uncertainty.
- Managed money participants expanded net long positions, signalling sustained bullish conviction.
- The 65%-62% spread fell sharply while the 62%-58% spread surged, marking pronounced divergence in grade spreads following the post-holiday sessions.
Tariffs, EUDR Delay, Weather, Weak Demand Weigh On Thailand’s Rubber Outlook
- Exports plunge 43% from February peak, hitting mid-year lows
- Trump tariffs, weak Chinese demand deepen pressure on shipments
- Thailand players, well-prepared for EUDR, upset over the recent update from the EU
CX Daily: Chinese Firms Face Shifting Global IPO Landscape
- IPOs /In Depth: Chinese Firms Face Shifting Global IPO Landscape
- Airlines /In Depth: From Skies to Shackles, HNA Founder Chen Feng Sentenced to 12 Years in Prison
- Holiday /China’s Golden Week Travel Boom Masks Frugality
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