Daily Brief Macro: HEW: Slow Shovels and more

• UK fiscal policy had an even smaller hole to fill than we expected, with the work to fill it in delayed until the election. There is no dovish pressure on the BoE from this.
• European data releases were relatively resilient again, with household lending and business sentiment broadly increasing. National inflation surprises were offsetting.
• Next week’s Euro area flash HICP is still tracking 2.1% in our forecast. Final PMI releases and the BoE’s decision maker panel survey results are our other release highlights.

• Hong Kong market continues to consolidate during the early stage of its Secular Bull Market.  Strength and momentum indicators show further weakness ahead.
• Materials and healthcare sectors have lost momentum with other sectors trendless.  Analysts target 20% price gains in materials sector over the next year.
• China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK)  shares fell on Thursday on concerns over the insurer’s estimated HK$2.6B exposure to a HK residential project at the center of a deadly fire.

Highlights

• Malaysia’s NR output drops 14.8% MoM in September 2025

• Quarterly production rises 36.9% despite yearly contraction

• Market sentiment mixed amid EUDR delay reports and rate-cut hopes

Natural rubber production in September fell by 14.8% to 26,647 tons from 31,285 tons in August, marking a 16.3% year-on-year drop from September 2024’s 31,847 tons. The contraction came as a setback following a modest recovery in earlier months

• On 28 November, the Korean National Assembly reached an agreement on a tax reform plan to officially lower taxes on dividends income. 
• The decline in tax on dividends is a definite step in the right direction. Nonetheless, the top bracket dividend tax rate cut was slightly less than what market was expecting. 
• Given that about 15%-25% dividend tax rates are more common in other developed countries,  Korea’s reduction of dividend taxes is likely to be welcomed highly by many global investors.

• India’s economic growth outlook remains strong with projected real GDP growth rates of 6.65%, 6.16% and 6.41% for the years 2025 through 2027.
• Prices rose in the first 2 quarters of 2025, as CPI QoQ growth rates were -1.83% and 0.33% in Q1 and Q2 of 2025.
• Labor market displays resilience, with unemployment rate well below 5%, throughout 2024.

• In Depth: China Drafts Debut Legislation for Public Interest Litigation
• Three Arrested as Hong Kong High-Rise Fire Leaves at Least 55 Dead
• Vanke Seeks to Delay Repayment on 2 Billion Yuan Note as Debt Pressures Mount

• During the period under consideration, i.e. September 25th, 2025 to October 24th, 2025, the EUR/USD pair exhibited a bearish trend.
• In the beginning, it showed overall a downward slope, until October 14th where the pair indicated an upward trend.
• After that, it fluctuated sideways between MA-10 and MA-20. By the end of the period the price it was slightly lower than the level of September 25th.

• According to Graph 1, during the period July 25th, 2025 – October 24th, 2025, a mixed trend was reflected in the prices of steel coil futures amid fluctuations.
• During the period under consideration there was a slight decrease in the price of steel coil futures.
• The MA-10 was recorded to perform higher than the MA-20 at the first month of the period and afterwards, besides the several fluctuations, it appeared to be aligning with and moving in tandem with the MA-20.