In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Trade Deals & Fiscal Slippage
- CX Daily: China Intensifies War on Toxic Competition as Economy Suffers
- [ETP 2025/30] TotalEnergies Lifts Payouts, BP Reboots Leadership; WTI Recovers While Henry Hub Drops
- [IO Technicals 2025/30] Iron Ore Rally Cools on Supply Surge, but Policy Hopes Keep Prices Afloat
HEW: Trade Deals & Fiscal Slippage
- Market narratives were driven by US trade pacts, critically with Japan, the ECB watching data from a good place, and further evidence of UK fiscal problems.
- Tariff uncertainty eased slightly, but it is still fierce ahead of the 1 August deadline. PMIs remained resilient, and UK retail sales rebounded into growth again for Q2.
- Next week brings Fed, BoC and BoJ meetings (broadly on hold), US and euro-area GDP growth for Q2, US payrolls, euro-area unemployment and slower flash HICP data.
CX Daily: China Intensifies War on Toxic Competition as Economy Suffers
- Competition / In Depth: China intensifies war on toxic competition as economy suffers
- IPOs /In Depth: China reopens the door for loss-making tech startups to go public
- Energy /: Massive new hydropower dam in Xizang won’t harm downstream nations, China says
[ETP 2025/30] TotalEnergies Lifts Payouts, BP Reboots Leadership; WTI Recovers While Henry Hub Drops
- WTI crude prices are pressured by oversupply and weak sentiment, but received support late-week by a strong inventory draw and improved outlook for U.S.-EU trade talks.
- U.S. natural gas prices dipped early due to high output and mild weather but recovered slightly on heat-driven demand, with ample storage limiting further upside.
- Oil and gas corporate updates showed mixed earnings and strategy shifts, with Halliburton guiding lower, BP appointing a new chairman, and SLB falling despite beating expectations.
[IO Technicals 2025/30] Iron Ore Rally Cools on Supply Surge, but Policy Hopes Keep Prices Afloat
- Iron ore futures surged on China’s massive hydropower push, but gains faded as property sector stress lingered.
- Investors are watching the upcoming Politburo meeting for potential action on curbing excess capacity in EV, solar, and lithium battery sectors to support struggling prices.
- Prices are holding firm above key moving averages, pointing to continued upward momentum, while the RSI hints at a potential price correction.
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