Daily BriefsMacro

Daily Brief Macro: Israel/Iran/US: Ten Pointers and more

In today’s briefing:

  • Israel/Iran/US: Ten Pointers
  • India – Reasons To Overweight
  • CX Daily: Alibaba Fights Tencent for Dominance Over AI in China
  • Ivanhoe’s Massive Guide Down And Copper Supply Impacts
  • China to Reopen STAR Market to Loss-Making Tech Firms
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 23 June
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 23 June
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/25] Henry Hub Rebounded on Better Weather Forecasts and LNG Exports
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 23 June
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 23 June


Israel/Iran/US: Ten Pointers

By Alastair Newton

  • Recent events have highlighted the difficulty in predicting the progression of the Iran/Israel conflict.
  • Despite this, the volatility caused by these headlines has not significantly impacted market perspectives.
  • The supply/demand equation remains the primary influence on market thinking regarding oil.

India – Reasons To Overweight

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Overweight, Indian equities with a bias towards industrials, property and consumer stocks.
  • Trading Post hopes  you took advantage of last year’s correction to buy into India,  as recommended. If not, there is time.
  • Investing in India is  ultimately about the domestic story. Business cycle indicators are improving, and the multi-year structural growth narrative remains compelling.

CX Daily: Alibaba Fights Tencent for Dominance Over AI in China

By Caixin Global

  • AI / Cover Story: Alibaba fights Tencent for dominance over AI in China
  • Flights /Iranian carrier resumes flights to China
  • Batteries /Korean, Japanese battery-makers launch legal offensive against Chinese rivals’ global ambitions

Ivanhoe’s Massive Guide Down And Copper Supply Impacts

By Sameer Taneja


China to Reopen STAR Market to Loss-Making Tech Firms

By Caixin Global

  • China’s Nasdaq-style STAR Market will reopen its doors to unprofitable companies as part of a broader set of measures announced Wednesday that aim to strengthen the stock market’s role in supporting high-tech and strategic emerging industries.
  • The measures include setting up a special sector for sci-tech growth companies on the Shanghai-based market, launching a pre-IPO review mechanism, and refining refinancing and strategic investor criteria, Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), said in a speech at the annual Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai.
  • “Establishing a sci-tech growth sector on the STAR Market and reinstating the fifth listing standard for unprofitable companies will provide more precise services to high-quality technology enterprises with major technological breakthroughs, promising commercial prospects, and a commitment to continuous investment in research and development,” Wu said.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 23 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils price differentials fall sharply relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices in June 2025 following surge in crude oil prices.
  • Speed and size of fall in base oils margins reflects more the surge in crude oil prices rather than sudden, unexpected change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.
  • Lack of any sudden, unexpected change in supply-demand fundamentals could support reversion of base oils margins closer to their higher levels in early-June 2025 before their slump in recent weeks.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 23 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils price-premium to competing/feedstock prices extends fall to five-month low.
  • Lower margins coincide with improving supply in Asia as more plant-maintenance draws to a close.
  • Improving supply and seasonal slowdown in demand could curb refiners’ leverage to target higher prices to reverse recent drop in margins.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/25] Henry Hub Rebounded on Better Weather Forecasts and LNG Exports

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 20/Jun, U.S. natural gas prices rose by 7.4% on the back of rising LNG exports, warmer weather forecasts, and Israel-Iran tensions.
  • For the week ending 13/Jun, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 95 Bcf, lower than analyst expectations of a 96 Bcf build.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR inched down by 0.85 on 20/Jun compared to 0.86 on 13/Jun. Call OI increased by 2% WoW, while put OI grew by 1.5%.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 23 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils prices fall relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices following recent surge in crude oil prices.
  • Dip in US export price-premium to vacuum gasoil in June 2025 contrasts with sustained surge of price-premium in Q2-Q3 2024.
  • Weaker price-premium points to softer supply-demand fundamentals at end-Q2 2025 compared with year earlier.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 23 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could be firmer than usual for the time of year as higher crude oil prices and growing concern about supply disruptions counter weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
  • Demand for Group I heavy neutrals and Group III base oils especially could get support from concern that any supply disruptions would have more direct impact on those products.
  • Concern about tighter supply of Group I heavy neutrals could support stronger demand for Group II heavy grades as an alternative.

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