Daily Brief Macro: Platinum’s Year End Bull Run? // La Niña Update and more

• Platinum continues to look strong, as does copper. Platinum tends to deliver above average returns during December and February, according to recent seasonal stats.
• Over the last 25 years, platinum has produced an average return of +7.79% from December 6 to February 20, with a win rate of 84% and an annualized return of +43.29%, according to Seasonax. (we can verify this trend)
• Copper on the other hand remains more of a tariff play.

• Crude oil futures recovered from monthly lows Wednesday after reports that the US had seized a Venezuelan tanker, although fears over a massive surplus kept benchmarks at the low end of the December trading range.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $62.67/b (2042 GMT) versus Tuesday’s settle of $61.94/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $59.02/b against a previous close of $58.25/b.
• Brent recovered from an intraday low $61.35/b after officials confirmed that the US Coast Guard had led an operation to seize the vessel carrying Venezuelan oil.

• The BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, matching the consensus, and framed this as a pause near neutral that likely extends the horizon for stable rates.​
• Strong but trade‑driven Q3 growth and still‑soft domestic demand argue against near‑term hikes, keeping the bias toward a prolonged hold rather than renewed easing.​
• With CPI near 2% and core around 2.5%, the Bank sees inflation anchored, reducing pressure for further cuts and reinforcing a data‑dependent, higher‑for‑longer rate stance.​

Highlights

• Exports dip nearly 7% YoY in September due to weak tire shipments

• President firm on SVAT removal, raising liquidity concerns

• EUDR compliance becomes key export test in days to come

• During the first nine months, total export earnings fell 5.97% to US$713.62 million, largely driven by a 16.3% drop in tire and tube shipments.