Daily Brief Macro: Ray Dalio on the Coming Crisis in US Debt and more

• Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater and author, discusses big numbers and debt cycles in a social and political context
• Tracy and Joe host a podcast episode with Ray Dalio, known for his insights on finance and the invention of the chicken nugget

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• After several months of a technical top-consolidation, the US market is entering a bear market.  The piercing of the Magnificent-7 bubble will continue to drive selling pressure in the market.
• Inflation pressures will tie the Fed’s hands to bail out the market with another Fed Put.  Another market bailout would cost much more than the $5 trillion COVID bailout.
• The administration’s policy sequencing is pushing inflation expectations higher as the immediate tariff implementation supersedes other anti-inflationary policies, which will take longer to implement.

• Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly editorial on geopolitics, commodities, and macro.
• While there hasn’t been much news on the commodity front since last week, we have a bunch of moving parts on the geopolitical scene—last Friday’s heated (and unplanned) Zelensky/Trump debate, the subsequent removal of all military aid targeting Ukraine, and now Trump trying his best to get all counterparts and allies to block any partnerships with China.
• While this was already evident earlier this week, when the administration urged Mexico to impose tariffs on China to avoid US tariffs, today’s reports of Putin acting as the middleman in the Iran nuclear deal were not something anyone had on their bingo cards.

• There was a significant transatlantic dispute over Russia and Ukraine last week.
• Donald Trump threatened on 27 February to impose a 25 percent tariff on all European imports, which could impact markets significantly.
• Despite Keir Starmer’s ‘king’s gambit’, the UK should not assume it will be unaffected by these potential tariffs.

• The first thing that investors need to recognise in Team Trump is that, like the markets, they don’t really care what we think.
• They do not respond to worthy editorials in the Economist or the Financial Times or the Wall Street Journal.
• They don’t care what ‘experts’ think on trade or tariffs or fiscal policy, they tell us what they are going to do, rather than ask for our opinion.

• Ne Zha 2 / In Depth: ‘Ne Zha 2’ heralds new era for Chinese animation
• Xiaomi /: Xiaomi aims to take its EV sales overseas by 2027
• Tariff counter: China hit back at the U.S.’ 10% tariff hike that took effect Tuesday with a package of countermeasures.

• Few surprises from the Government Work Report, but investor fatigue has set in.
• Groundwork continues to be laid for a boost in consumption as a share of GDP
• HK/China bull market to broaden out from the technology sector?