In today’s briefing:
- Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers, Policies & Risks in 2025
- Argentina: The First Domino How Freedom, Discipline, and Bitcoin Are Rewriting the EM Playbook
- ECB: Cutting In Shadow of Shocks
- The Drill: A rush for gold amidst a geopolitical circus unfolding
- Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News
- [ETP 2025/16] WTI Eyes First Weekly Gain in April; Mild Forecasts Drag Down Henry Hub
- US Retail Sales Trends Grew 3.6% in 1Q
- Mid-Month Electric Two-Wheeler Update: Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Witness Steep Decline
- Korea: Policy Rate Held At 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Apr-25
- CX Daily: China’s First-Quarter GDP Jumps 5.4% Ahead of Tariff Storm
Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers, Policies & Risks in 2025
In the next installment of our Webinar series, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Manishi Raychaudhuri.
- The ASEAN region is expected to witness positive economic growth in the coming years, driven by robust domestic demand, increasing foreign investments, and government initiatives to boost economic activities.
However, challenges like trade turmoil, poor consumer confidence, and potential deflation need to be addressed to sustain and enhance the markets’ attractiveness.
Join us as Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri shares his outlook on capital markets across ASEAN, including timely insights on sector trends, policy shifts, and future risks shaping investment opportunities in the ASEAN-6.
The webinar will be hosted on Monday, 28 April 2025, 16:30 SGT/HKT.
Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri possesses nearly three decades of experience in Asian Equities in the roles of APAC Head of Equity Research, Asian Equity Strategist and Analyst across various sectors, brings a unique cross border and cross-industry perspective to the process of investment strategy and asset allocation. He worked in senior leadership roles at BNP Paribas and UBS across Mumbai and Hong Kong. Prior to UBS, he was with ICICI Securities, then a JV with JP Morgan. Manishi marries top-down macro-economic outlook with bottom-up sector themes to create unique alpha generative portfolios for clients.
Argentina: The First Domino How Freedom, Discipline, and Bitcoin Are Rewriting the EM Playbook
- Century of Decline, One Shock Reset: Argentina fell from 80% of US GDP to 25%—Milei is reversing it with fiscal shock therapy.
- From Chaos to Credibility: Inflation tamed, market confidence rising—first fiscal surplus in a decade.
- Decentralization, AI, and the Next Model: Tax federalism and AI governance make Argentina the first EM reform lab.
ECB: Cutting In Shadow of Shocks
- The ECB’s seventh 25bp deposit rate cut to 2.25% risks becoming stimulative, but the shock from US trade policy seen through market moves demanded a response.
- Central bankers are no more aware of the trade policy outlook than markets, but they are more aware of the potential inflationary effects and limits to effective easing.
- Time will reveal the tariffs and impact, allowing the agile ECB to tackle this rather than just the shadow it has cast on anticipatory market pricing. We still expect a June cut.
The Drill: A rush for gold amidst a geopolitical circus unfolding
- Time for your weekly fix of what’s going on at the messy intersection of commodities and geopolitics.
- Energy prices are drifting lower — just as Trump said they would — but I’m not so sure the driver is the one Trump and his team anticipated.
- We’re staring down the barrel of a pretty material manufacturing slump in Q2.
Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News
- Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported an increase in deliveries from Q3 FY25 to 704k tons from 346k tons/587k tons in Q1/Q2 FY25, transitioning from a 1.3 mtpa-2.8 mtpa runrate.
- The company remains on track to commence production from the Beebyn W-11 mine by the September quarter of 2025, taking the annualized production rate to>4.0 mtpa.
- At ~4 mtpa, we expect the mines to generate 200 mn AUD of operating cash flow (at 100 USD/ton iron ore price), equivalent to FEX’s market cap.
[ETP 2025/16] WTI Eyes First Weekly Gain in April; Mild Forecasts Drag Down Henry Hub
- For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.4m barrel rise). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
- Henry Hub headed for a fourth straight daily loss, with analysts expecting a 24 Bcf build in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending 11/Apr.
- Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Halliburton, while TotalEnergies expects Q1 hydrocarbon production at the high end of its guidance range.
US Retail Sales Trends Grew 3.6% in 1Q
- US retail sales (excluding autos and gasoline) increased 3.6% Y/Y in 1Q25, according to the Advance monthly retail sales data from the US Census Bureau.
- This was an acceleration from the 0.2% Y/Y growth in February 2025, but more importantly, there was an acceleration in CAGR growth versus 2019 levels compared with both January and February 2025, which represented a deceleration from prior year levels (see chart on right).
- Whether this acceleration was in anticipation of the impending tariffs announcement is unclear.
Mid-Month Electric Two-Wheeler Update: Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Witness Steep Decline
- March 2025 was a great month for electric two wheeler sales. However mid month April registration numbers show steep decline in volumes.
- Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) and TVS Motor (TVSL IN) witness steep decline in volume versus March 2025.
- Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) leads the table with the highest registration.
Korea: Policy Rate Held At 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Apr-25
- The Bank of Korea maintained its base rate at 2.75%, aligning with the majority consensus, as heightened uncertainty over US tariff policy, domestic stimulus measures, and exchange rate volatility warranted a pause in easing, despite deteriorating growth prospects.
- Domestic GDP is now expected to undershoot the 1.5% forecast from February due to weak Q1 performance, persistent trade frictions, and subdued domestic demand, while inflation remains stable at around 2%.
- Further rate cuts remain likely, but the MPC will assess external volatility and policy clarity before resuming easing, with the May outlook expected to be a key inflexion point.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
CX Daily: China’s First-Quarter GDP Jumps 5.4% Ahead of Tariff Storm
- GDP /: China’s first-quarter GDP jumps 5.4% ahead of tariff storm
- Hong Kong /: Trade war clouds Hong Kong’s future as China’s global gateway
- Banks /In Depth: Chinese banks chase opportunities overseas amid struggles at home
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