In today’s briefing:
- S&P 500: A Healing Patient Who Needs Rest
- “What-Ifs”
- What the Trade Détente Means for Investors
S&P 500: A Healing Patient Who Needs Rest
- The bullish recovery of the S&P 500 has been astounding in speed and magnitude.
- We are upgrading the signal of our Trend Asset Allocation Model from bearish to neutral.
- In the short run, the rally has left the market extended and it may need to take a breather.
“What-Ifs”
- What if the proportion of core CPI categories experiencing upward inflation momentum is on the rise?
- What if the improvement in the more persistent categories of CPI inflation has more-or-less stalled?
- What if longer-term inflation expectations are no longer wiggling sideways or actually creeping higher?
What the Trade Détente Means for Investors
- The prospect of a Sino-American trade détente has taken recession risk off the table.
- The S&P 500 is on course to recover from a bear market, but faces headwinds from policy unpredictability.
- Investors should position in a diversified portfolio of global assets and gradually diversify away from USD exposure.
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