In today’s briefing:
- The Dollar Is Smiling But It’s Not Happy 🙁
- CX Daily: How Chinese Expertise Opened Up $20 Billion African Mine
- Unpacking the Henry Hub Rally and the Forces Driving It
- Oil futures: Crude ends lower as Russian shipments eyed
- Asian Equities: Policy Focus Reflected in Sector-Wise IPO Revival in Leading Markets
- Oil futures: Prices higher after soft start to session on surplus fears
- Egypt (November 18th 2025)
The Dollar Is Smiling But It’s Not Happy 🙁
- The dollar has strengthened in the face of weakening equity markets, however it is not the Dollar Smile theory supporting its move this time.
- A more hawkish Fed signals a break with past conditioning for a Fed Put to bail out the stock market. Post-COVID inflation caused by Fed policies will constrain aggressive easing.
- Safe-Haven support for the dollar and Treasuries broke down during the April selloff, indicating a change in foreigners’ perception of holding USD assets and leading to significantly increased dollar hedging.
CX Daily: How Chinese Expertise Opened Up $20 Billion African Mine
- How China Unlocked Simandou to Reshape the Global Iron Ore Trade. On an October morning along the Atlantic coast of West Africa, a bulk carrier named Winning Youth waited quietly in the port of Morebaya.
- It carried nearly 10,000 metric tons of blood-red earth, freshly extracted from deep inside Guinea’s remote southeastern mountains.
- The iron ore, loaded days earlier on to the first train to run on the Trans-Guinea Railway, had traveled hundreds of kilometers across ridges to reach this point.
Unpacking the Henry Hub Rally and the Forces Driving It
- Surging U.S. LNG exports, stronger power demand, and shifting weather models have tightened fundamentals, driving Henry Hub futures to near three-year highs despite record output and above-average storage levels.
- Henry Hub’s rally since mid-October has been driven by record LNG exports and colder winter forecasts, which outweighed rising U.S. production and above-average storage levels.
- Options positioning shows short-term caution but growing medium-term optimism, with higher call interest across later contracts signaling expectations for firmer Henry Hub prices into early-2026.
Oil futures: Crude ends lower as Russian shipments eyed
- Crude oil futures ended lower Monday despite rebounding from a soft start in response to reports crude loadings had resumed at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
- Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.09/b (2031 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $64.39/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI settled at $59.91/b against a previous close of $60.09/b.
- Ship tracking data showed two oil tankers had docked at Novorossiysk over the weekend, while Reuters quoted local officials saying that crude loadings had resumed following Friday’s drone strikes.
Asian Equities: Policy Focus Reflected in Sector-Wise IPO Revival in Leading Markets
- Asian IPOs’ spike in 2025 (21% higher till October) has been driven primarily by HK/China. Indian IPOs are almost at the same level as in a very strong 2024.
- Policy thrust for “New Productive Forces” are driving capital raising from industrials, materials, technology and utilities and shall continue to do so. Healthcare should also be a buoyant capital raiser.
- India’s policy focus on manufacturing and listing of PE-funded companies should drive IPOs from industrials, materials and consumer discretionary. Financials shall also remain a large issuer sector.
Oil futures: Prices higher after soft start to session on surplus fears
- Crude oil futures ended higher after a soft trading session earlier when immediate concerns around disruptions to Russian crude receded as loadings resumed from the crucial Novorossiysk port.
- Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were last trading at $65/b (2017 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $64.20/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.78/b against a previous close of $59.91/b.
- Benchmarks have struggled in the early part of the week after loadings resumed from the key Black Sea oil hub following a two-day suspension in the wake of drone strikes.
Egypt (November 18th 2025)
- IMF’s mission in Cairo early December.
- CBE sees the financing gap increasing for the next 2 years.
- The Pound deals below 47, best since May 2024. Offshore investors keep buying bills.
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