Daily Brief Macro: The Drill: Strap in for Trump and more

• Trump has signaled his intention to stop oil imports from Venezuela.
• While these imports are relatively insignificant to the U.S., they are hugely significant to Venezuela.
• Growing demand in China might help offset the impact, but if not, Venezuela could be facing more years of political turbulence.

• Stay underweight Chinese equities, sell the renminbi. The Chinese corporate profit cycle is worsening , signalling that the  economy Is yet to bottom.
• Loss making companies were up 11% YoY in the first 11 months  of 2024 and accounted for 25% of manufacturing. 
• Operating revenues have held-up, but operating costs are rising fast as are inventories and liabilities. Corporate debt to GDP had already hit 295% in 3Q24.

• Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.
• They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.
• Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.

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• Malaysia’s rubber imports clock 103,650 tons in Nov
• SMR 20 secures lion’s share in rubber exports at 60.4%
• Signs MoU with Thailand for sustainable rubber production