In today’s briefing:
- The Ultimate Debt Chart: Why Central Banks Hold the Key to Debt Sustainability
- [Counting Beans #7] Collapse in Crush Margins Yet Another Blow for Soybean
- CX Daily: China Set for Interest Rate Cuts to Support Economy
- Downshifting & Ending QT
The Ultimate Debt Chart: Why Central Banks Hold the Key to Debt Sustainability
- The relationship between total debt-to-GDP and bond yields is negative.
- The rationale is simple: central banks implementing extreme monetary policy to push yields down artificially.
- The combination of structurally low-interest rates, higher inflation, and growing worries about debt sustainability requires a portfolio shuffle.
[Counting Beans #7] Collapse in Crush Margins Yet Another Blow for Soybean
- Depressed Soybean crush margin to deal a further blow to Soybean demand.
- The outlook for Soy Meal and Soy Oil is better than the outlook for Soybean.
- Important production guidance updates from CONAB and USDA this week. Expectations point to lower production and lower consumption.
CX Daily: China Set for Interest Rate Cuts to Support Economy
- Rate cuts / In Depth: China set for interest rate cuts to support economy
- Funds /: China’s star fund manager under investigation, sources say
- Corruption /: Ex-chief of China Merchants Bank receives suspended death sentence
Downshifting & Ending QT
- Chair Powell recently noted that more “in-depth discussions” on QT are forthcoming
- Market participants differ on the likely timing of ending QT and desired level of “ample reserves”
- Non-Monetary considerations and broad market conditions can potentially sway the QT debate
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