Daily Brief Macro: UK Disinflationary Kool-Aid and more

• UK disinflation relied on smaller utility price hikes and only went as far as the 3.6% forecast before September’s dovish surprise. It does not mean a path to 2% lies ahead.
• A broad rebound in price increases took the annualised median impulse above 4% to average 2.5% over two months, or 3% on the year, as the underlying problem persists.
• The BoE’s December decision pivots around the Governor, who seemingly needs upside news to avoid delivering a cut, so this outcome preserves that riskily dovish course.

• Slower food price inflation nibbled the EA rate down to 2.1% in October, while services increased to their fastest pace since April. Labour costs are still rising too fast.
• Underlying inflation metrics are broadly a bit beyond target, risking a slight overshoot in the medium term, but the median impulse is reassuring, weighed down by France.
• Energy prices are set to bump inflation around the target in 2026, averaging above the consensus in our view. The ECB would need tightness elsewhere to shift rates, though.

• Global oil outlooks diverged in November as the EIA cut demand forecasts, and the IEA lifted projections. However, both agencies expect supply to grow faster than demand.
• The EIA, IEA, and OPEC flag a rising risk of oversupply heading into 2026, noting that expanding production and already-elevated inventories could keep the market looser.
• Strong U.S. LNG exports prompted the EIA to raise its Henry Hub forecasts, signalling price strength will rely more on robust export demand than on domestic consumption this winter.

• In Depth: China Puts Industry, Consumers at Heart of Next Five-Year Plan
• Investors Flock to Chinese eVTOLs Chasing Regulatory Green Lights
• Hong Kong Expected to Swing to Budget Surplus on Stock Market Boom

• Bank Indonesia paused rate cuts at 4.75%, shifting focus from growth to rupiah stability. This outcome was no surprise to the consensus as external risks intensified.​
• Further easing depends on rupiah stabilisation, not inflation alone. Elevated term premia and expanded FX operations reflect caution.​
• Macroprudential incentives and FX measures aim to support growth while monitoring weak credit transmission after previous rate cuts.

• Metals X shareholder and non-executive chair of Mount Gibson interviewed about the company’s journey and capital allocation
• Discusses turning around Metals X from a complicated company with distressed assets to a streamlined operation with focus on tin asset
• Successfully sold off Nifty and Wingona Nickel Cobalt assets, spun off Wingollina into a separate listed company, and retained convertible notes for return on investment

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• Crude oil futures ended lower Wednesday as benchmarks remained under pressure from oversupply fears and uncertainty around the global economic outlook.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.49/b (1950 GMT) versus Tuesday’s settle of $64.89/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.25/b against a previous close of $60.74/b.
• Markets remain torn between the flagged surplus through 2026 and growing supply risks from a variety of geopolitical events, particularly tighter measures on Russian exports.