Daily Brief Macro: UK: Jobless Embolden Bailey’s Cut and more

• Another disappointing rise in the unemployment rate should embolden Bailey’s bias to cut rates in December. Falling net underemployment contradicts, but is easily ignored.
• Another step down in payrolls, matched by employment this time, could be blamed on fears for the Budget. Redundancies also spiked, although vacancies are stable.
• Headline pay growth is slowing as expected, while the monthly impulse remains excessively strong, so the hawks are unlikely to see inflation persistence as broken.

• Private markets are investments into non-listed companies or assets, providing diversification and potentially higher returns for portfolios
• There is a significant trend of companies staying private for longer, leading to increased opportunities for private market investors
• Individual investors are increasingly looking to allocate to private markets, with the total alternative assets under management expected to reach $32 trillion by 2030.

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• The US dollar remains strong despite ongoing government shutdown and uncertain economic data
• Eurodollar shows resilience and potential for growth due to positive PMI data in Europe
• Range-bound trading expected for Eurodollar with potential for upside breakout depending on US data and market conditions

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• Crude oil futures opened the week slightly higher on growing optimism that the US government shutdown was close to ending, while Iraqi output could be under after Lukoil declared force majeure at the West Qurna-2 oilfield.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.07/b (2130 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $63.63/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.14/b against a previous close of $59.75/b.
• Prices ticked higher Monday after the US Senate on Sunday passed the first stage of a deal that would end the government shutdown, underpinning the broader financial risk-on sentiment.

• US base oils demand could be more muted amid expectations of rise in domestic supply over coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance work.
• Sufficient availability of supply in recent weeks, even during plant-shutdown, points to signs of already-slower demand during that period.
• Expected rise in supply would coincide with time of year when domestic consumption typically slows anyway.

• Riksbank expected to stay on hold due to inflation moving along expected lines
• Norges Bank has implicit easing bias but unlikely to deliver rate cuts based on incoming data
• Bank of England keeps rates on hold with closer vote split, markets pricing in gradual rate cuts through early next year

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• In Depth: Thaw in China Relations Brings Good Vibes to Canada’s Energy, Agri-Food Businesses
• U.S. Exporters Laud China Tariff Reprieve, but Scars Remain
• Country Garden Wins Creditor Backing for $17.7 Billion Debt Restructuring

• Iron ore rebounded as supply tightened, and trade sentiment improved, though weak demand and margin pressure capped gains.
• Managed money participants increased their net long positions across all futures and options expiries, signalling renewed confidence in the bullish trend.
• The DCE-SGX spread’s climb above key MAs signals firm bullish momentum, though sustained strength remains crucial.

• Net international reserves continue to grow reaching 50.07 bn $ at the end of October.

• This comes after the increase recorded last week for the NFA’s of the banking sector.

• The increase is quite significant and almost double the pace we witnessed this year so far.

• Crude oil futures were climbing higher Tuesday, as tighter sanctions on Russia helped to offset concerns over a growing supply glut.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.05/b (2052 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $64.06/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.93/b against a previous close of $60.13/b.
• Prices strengthened after Kpler reported that volumes of Russian crude into India have slumped by almost half during the early part of November, suggesting Washington’s latest sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have started to bite.