In today’s briefing:
- UK Jobs Find Their Floor
- Copper’s Perfect Storm: Supply Strains Meet Fed Tailwinds
- HarmoniQ Insights Partners with Columbia University for Groundbreaking AI Conference
- CX Daily: Why Modi Won’t Play Cowboys and Indians With Trump, Opting Instead for Strategic Autonomy
- Nasdaq Proposes Stricter IPO Rules, Raising Bar for Smaller Chinese Listings
- Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 September
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 15 September
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 15 September
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 September
- Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 15 September
UK Jobs Find Their Floor
- Stability in unemployment at 4.66%, while payrolls only marginally decline, suggests the labour market has found its floor before disinflationary pressures accumulate.
- A narrative-breaking improvement could occur next month. Tax rises structurally explain the scale of the previous shock, with weakness seemingly not going beyond that.
- Excess supply is needed to break wage growth to a target-consistent trend. Without that, the MPC should hold rates before potentially reversing by raising them in 2026.
Copper’s Perfect Storm: Supply Strains Meet Fed Tailwinds
- China’s refined copper output is projected to contract 4–5% this month—the first seasonal decline since 2016—driven by smelter inefficiencies and concentrate shortages.
- Exchange inventories show divergence: LME and SHFE stocks are falling while CME stocks rise, amplifying regional supply tightness and premium volatility.
- CME Copper futures show strengthening bullish momentum, with RSI above 50 and MACD nearing a bullish crossover, signaling improving market sentiment.
HarmoniQ Insights Partners with Columbia University for Groundbreaking AI Conference
- HarmoniQ Leadership Role: HarmoniQ Insights co-sponsors the September 30th Generative AI Investment Management Conference at Columbia, with Bill Mann and Debby Goan leading fireside chats with industry leaders.
- Industry Transformation Moment: Conference addresses how fundamental investors can leverage AI to scale from analyzing 15 companies to screening 100+ opportunities, as discussed in yesterday’s New Barbarians podcast.
- Practical Implementation Focus: Attendees access 20+ AI providers, real-world case studies, and networking opportunities addressing build-vs-buy decisions to capitalize on AI’s performance advantages.
CX Daily: Why Modi Won’t Play Cowboys and Indians With Trump, Opting Instead for Strategic Autonomy
- India-U.S. /Cover Story: Why Modi Won’t Play Cowboys and Indians With Trump, Opting Instead for Strategic Autonomy
- Asia New Vision Forum /: EV Suppliers Must Innovate and Find a Niche to Survive, Insiders Say
- Military /: China’s Top Legislature Ousts Four More Generals in Widening Anti-Corruption Campaign
Nasdaq Proposes Stricter IPO Rules, Raising Bar for Smaller Chinese Listings
- Nasdaq is moving to tighten its listing standards, a step that could sharply limit the flow of smaller Chinese companies onto the exchange even after U.S. audit disputes have been resolved.
- In a proposal announced Wednesday, the exchange said it would raise the minimum public float and fundraising requirements for new listings, while enforcing faster suspension and delisting procedures for companies that fail to meet ongoing standards.
- For companies listing under income-based standards, the minimum public float would rise from $5 million to $15 million. Firms with deficiencies and a market value below $5 million could face swifter suspension and delisting. For companies that primarily operate in China, new IPOs would need to raise at least $25 million.
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 September
- US base oils demand likely to stay muted.
- Expectations of sufficient supplies, downward-pressure on prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at year-end incentivize buyers to trim stocks.
- Outright demand likely to stay weak even as recent fire at major blending plant triggers shift in consumption to other blenders, boosting their base oils requirements.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 15 September
- UAE’s imported Group I SN 500 price extends rise relative to prices in Europe and Asia in H1 Sept 2025.
- UAE SN 500 price-strength reflects tight availability of Group I heavy neutrals in Middle East market.
- Tight availability contrasts with improving or surplus availability of Group I heavy neutrals in Asia and Europe.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 15 September
- Global base oils prices mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.
- Firm margins point to strong supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output.
- Demand would need to hold firm to absorb steady-to-higher supplies.
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 September
- Asia’s base oils demand could get support from signs of steady requirements in markets like southeast Asia and India.
- Regional demand could get additional support from blenders’ balanced-to-tight stocks in some markets.
- Balanced-to-tight-stocks would boost need for regular replenishment supplies.
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 15 September
- US base oils prices hold firm in narrow range versus vacuum gasoil prices.
- Still-firm margins curb pressure on refiners to adjust output.
- Moves to maintain steady-to-high output would help to cushion impact of planned plant-maintenance work in coming weeks.
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