In today’s briefing:
- UK: Loans Secured Despite Tax Hike
- [WTI Options Weekly 2025/30] WTI Slips Again as Supply Concerns Outweigh Trade Optimism
- CX Daily: Succession, Scandal and Bottled Water — the Real Battle at the Heart of Wahaha Court Case
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 July
- [Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/30] Henry Hub Tumbled as Supply Surged and Sentiment Shifted
- US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk
- Bond Market Monitor: Thailand Unsmiled
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 July
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 July
- Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 July
UK: Loans Secured Despite Tax Hike
- Credit extended its rebound far beyond expectations in June. Reformed stamp duty raises costs and housing tenure, but it hasn’t broken the housing or mortgage markets.
- Demand for loans looks more resilient than banks expected amid easing monetary conditions. Refinancing may not have much effect on cash flow anymore.
- Higher transaction costs probably won’t break expectations into a downwards spiral, but are now widely cited as a major hurdle, contributing to slower UK activity growth.
[WTI Options Weekly 2025/30] WTI Slips Again as Supply Concerns Outweigh Trade Optimism
- WTI crude declined 1.4% for the week ending 25/Jul, pressured by oversupply concerns and renewed U.S. tariff threats, despite midweek gains from inventory draws and trade optimism.
- The U.S. rig count fell by two to 542, marking its twelfth weekly fall in thirteen weeks. Oil rigs by seven to 415, marking its thirteenth consecutive weekly fall.
- WTI OI PCR remained at 0.96 on 25/Jul compared to 18/Jul. Call OI inched up by 3.1% WoW, while put OI rose by 3.8%.
CX Daily: Succession, Scandal and Bottled Water — the Real Battle at the Heart of Wahaha Court Case
- Wahaha / Cover Story: Succession, scandal and bottled water — the real battle at the heart of Wahaha court case
- Funds /In Depth: China’s mutual fund minnows struggle to survive
- Dam /: China names duo helming construction of world’s largest hydropower dam
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 July
- India’s imported Group I heavy neutrals base oils cargo price strengthens relative to FOB Asia and Europe prices in July 2025.
- India’s rising price-differential for Group I SN 500 follows drop in availability of the supplies from Iran especially in recent months.
- India’s imports of Group I heavy neutrals fall to eighteen-month low in June 2025, mostly because of drop in supplies from Middle East.
[Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/30] Henry Hub Tumbled as Supply Surged and Sentiment Shifted
- For the week ending 25/Jul, Henry Hub dropped 12.8% on the back of mild weather forecasts, record output, and stagnant LNG flows.
- For the week ending 18/Jul, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 23 Bcf, lower than analyst expectations of a 28 Bcf build.
- Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.84 on 25/Jul compared to 18/Jul. Call OI grew by 6.5% WoW, while put OI rose by 3.2%.
US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk
- US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation.
- FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun’25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY.
- With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%.
Bond Market Monitor: Thailand Unsmiled
- We chose to objectively focus on Thailand’s institutional debacle in relation to the recent book called “Why Nations Fail”
- Thai Baht (THB) yields have remained too low, relative to Thailand’s country risk.
- This report is not so much about the low yield but rather the operating environment which we believe non-Thai investors can appreciate our local point of view.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 July
- Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices hold at elevated levels vs Singapore gasoil, even if lower than in Q2 2025.
- Firm heavy-grade margins sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output, even amid signs of pick-up in surplus supplies.
- Asia’s Group II heavy-grade prices hold at levels that keep open arbitrage from US and keep shut arbitrage to Americas.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 July
- Global base oils prices turn more mixed relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices.
- Light-grade margins face more pressure in Asia than in other markets.
- Dynamic boosts incentive for adjustments in output in that market, points to more balanced fundamentals in other markets.
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 July
- US domestic base oils demand shows signs of easing, compounding impact of pick-up in supply.
- Discount of US Group II export prices to domestic prices widens further, reflecting that dynamic.
- Weaker domestic demand suggests buyers are now comfortable with existing stock levels to cover requirements over coming weeks and to cover any unexpected disruptions to supply.
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