In today’s briefing:
- UK: Retreating To Trend Again
- US Treasuries: YOU BREAK IT YOU BOUGHT IT!
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Industrial Activity
- [ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 13 June 2025
- Middle East FX, June 12th 2025
UK: Retreating To Trend Again
- Residual seasonality shocked the consensus again, this time on the downside, as the spurious surge is replaced with stagnation for the rest of the year in our view.
- The 0.3% m-o-m decline dragged GDP back toward its trend, wiping out the highly supportive statistical carryover effect for Q2, which we now forecast at 0.1% q-o-q.
- BoE forecasts are on track, allowing the MPC’s bias to slow easing to materialise with a pause. We expect cuts to keep being rolled later, with no more delivered in this cycle.
US Treasuries: YOU BREAK IT YOU BOUGHT IT!
- The US Administration is undermining foreign demand for dollar assets at the same time, supply for US treasury debt is rapidly expanding.
- The Fed is constrained from lowering the Fed Funds rate due to rising yields in the long end of the treasury market.
- The long end of the US Treasury market is feeling the effects of Trump’s tariff policies. The US equity market will follow as risk premiums rise.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Industrial Activity
- Industrial activity advanced 0.1% MoM in a mixed report.
- Notably, manufacturing showed resilience, with growth recorded in nearly all industries.
- The observed figure came in below our estimate of 0.4% MoM and was in line with market consensus.
[ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook
- For the week ending 06/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.6m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.4m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
- The EIA reported a 109 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 108 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 5.4% above the five-year average but 8.6% below year-ago levels.
- Shell targets 12 MMT of new LNG capacity by 2030, while TotalEnergies partners with Mistral AI to enhance its low-carbon, multi-energy strategy using artificial intelligence.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 13 June 2025
India cuts interest rates as currency pressure eases, aiming to boost private investment without triggering inflation concerns.
China’s exports rise overall despite a sharp drop to the US, showing strength through trade diversification.
Regional trade flows shift sharply, with Taiwan and Vietnam surging ahead of potential tariffs, while uncertainty clouds second-half investment outlook.
Middle East FX, June 12th 2025
- Since retaking the White House , President Trump and his former chum have been busy gutting any kind of independent agencies in charge of oversight.
- Not a good time to be a whistle blower, you are on your own. One we mentioned before, the PCAOB : Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.
- It was created in 2002 to oversee accounting professionals and auditing companies in the wake of the Enron and WorldCom’s scandals.
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