Daily Brief Macro: US Tariff Policy: A.K.A. WHACK A MOLE! and more

• The U.S. continues to play “Whack-A-Mole” using tariffs to threaten and/or negotiate on many economic and geopolitical issues.
• The Trump tariff policy, which may be declared illegal by the Supreme Court next month, has caused manufacturers to hold off on hiring and expansion plans.
• Although tariff revenue for the U.S. government is at an all-time high, the U.S. will still record its highest trade deficit in history this year.

• Most large Asian markets’ forward PE multiples are significantly higher than their long-term averages. But their valuations relative to Asia-ex-Japan are mostly at the averages, only Korea’s is significantly lower.
• HK/China’s relative PE is slightly lower than average, Taiwan’s is slightly higher. ASEAN markets’ relative PE are sharply lower than their averages, but we think most lack rerating catalysts.
• We think Korea and Philippines deserve to get rerated. India’s relative PE, though at its long-term average, could decline slightly further, to reach its recent bottoms.

• European policymakers and investors see Donald Trump’s economic policies harming Republican prospects in the 2026 midterms and the 2028 general election.
• The Trump Administration is placing a good deal of faith in AI as a panacea. But the US may not have the skilled labour or the power-generating capacity to fuel an AI boom.
• Nor is it clear whether the current Administration is preparing for the related socio-economic disruption from which the MAGA faithful would be far from immune.

• Crude oil futures steadied Wednesday, consolidating the previous session’s gains as investors eyed threats to oil supplies, including Russian diesel after the last spate of refinery attacks.
• Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $67.90/b (1030 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $67.63/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at  $63.55/b against a previous close of $63.41/b.
• Benchmarks have largely been rangebound in September with markets torn between supply disruptions and concerns over a Q4 supply glut as OPEC+ continues its unwinding program.

• High miss probability: Suzano has $2.75B SLBs. The 2031 SPT needs 2025 intensity to fall 14% YoY, while the largest one-year reduction since 2019 is ≈2.9%. A miss is likely.
• Catalyst within months: Observation windows end YE 2025 and 2026. Coupons reset from July and September 2026. Vendor updates often lag disclosure, creating a tradable timing gap.
• How to position: Accumulate select SLBs into verification for carry when SPTs miss. Trade equity around KPI disclosures as a read on efficiency and capex cadence.

• Kharif food grain production to surpass government’s target in 2025-26
• Centre readies Rs.1 tln Urban Challenge Fund for city development
• CBIC enforce s retrospective GST amendment from 1 Oct 2025

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