In today’s briefing:
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 17 October 2025
- HEW: Cockroaches Startle Pricing
- EA: Inflation Rises Briefly In The Fall
- CX Daily: Why Singapore Sovereign Fund Sues Chinese EV-Maker Nio
- EIA, OPEC, and IEA Differ on Crude Oil Demand Outlook but Align on Asia-Led Demand Growth
- Oil futures: Crude down after Trump says India to halt Russian imports
- Shield or Strategy? EU’s Steel Tariffs Double as a Bargaining Chip with Beijing
- Iron Ore Faces Renewed Downside Amid Weak Margins and Rising Supply Concerns
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 17 October 2025
- China: Monetary & Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth
- Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first 10 days of October show exports down 15% YoY, imports down 22.8%.
- India: Inflation Trends Favor Rate Cuts: Wholesale prices up just 0.1% YoY in September — a stark contrast to >10% in 2022 and flat in 2023.
HEW: Cockroaches Startle Pricing
- Losses on bad and fraudulent US loans raise the risk that more cockroaches will emerge, nourished by monetary policy stimulating asset prices outside of recessionary regimes.
- Market rates fell on this, while macro data didn’t offer direction as UK Q3 GDP kept tracking 0.2%, EA inflation was confirmed, and UK labour market data were mixed.
- Next week’s UK inflation data should reveal a rise, with the CPI reaching 4%. Delayed US CPI data will provide a rare signal more relevant to the Fed’s likely decision to cut.
EA: Inflation Rises Briefly In The Fall
- Inflation’s rise to a high 2.3% in September was confirmed in the final print, although some payback remains likely in October. We doubt it goes fully back to the target then.
- Underlying inflation metrics were broadly stable again at about 2.5%, with little progress in most statistical measures for over a year.
- There is little cause for alarm at this stage, so the ECB can keep waiting in a good place, but we still see a greater risk of hikes than cuts in 2026.
CX Daily: Why Singapore Sovereign Fund Sues Chinese EV-Maker Nio
- Lawsuit /In Depth: Why Singapore Sovereign Fund Sues Chinese EV-Maker Nio
- Food safety /In Depth: Stinky Shrimp Sets Off Storm About School Lunches
- PPI /Analysis: China Tries to Lift Factory Prices, but Demand Is Still Missing
EIA, OPEC, and IEA Differ on Crude Oil Demand Outlook but Align on Asia-Led Demand Growth
- Global oil demand growth remains Asia-led. However, surging non-OPEC supply and swelling inventories threaten price stability, even as China’s stockpiling and resilient consumption cushion downside pressure.
- EIA, OPEC, and IEA see diverging oil market paths, with non-OECD demand strong but excess supply, high inventories, and soft gas prices signalling a market leaning toward surplus.
- While Asia powers demand growth, mounting supply from the U.S. and OPEC+, and elevated inventories weigh on prices, keeping crude markets stable yet tilted bearish into 2026.
Oil futures: Crude down after Trump says India to halt Russian imports
- Crude oil futures were lower Thursday as a sharp retreat in US crude runs unwound earlier gains stemming from US President Donald Trump’s claims he had persuaded India’s Prime Minister to halt purchases of Russian crude.
- Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $61.18/b (2013 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $61.91/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $57.60/b against a previous close of $58.27/b.
- Trump said late Wednesday that Indian PM Narendra Modi had pledged to stop buying oil from Russia, while the President said he would seek a similar commitment from China.
Shield or Strategy? EU’s Steel Tariffs Double as a Bargaining Chip with Beijing
- The EU plans to impose 25–50% duties on Chinese steel to protect domestic producers from cheap imports and high decarbonisation costs.
- Analysts expect China’s steel exports to reach 120 million tons, intensifying global overcapacity, pressuring margins, and prompting protectionist responses worldwide.
- EU tariffs on Chinese steel are unlikely to materially impact overall exports but function as strategic leverage, potentially reshaping flows and future negotiations.
Iron Ore Faces Renewed Downside Amid Weak Margins and Rising Supply Concerns
- Iron ore futures recorded a weekly loss as renewed trade tensions and weak mill margins overshadowed a brief post-holiday demand recovery.
- Managed money participants increased their net long positions, reflecting continued confidence in the bullish outlook.
- Demand for higher-grade ore remains subdued as weak mill margins persist, keeping the 65%-62% spread under sustained downward pressure in the near term.
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