In today’s briefing:
- After the Down-Cycle, the Setup Improves: India’s Steel Industry Heads into 2026 with Tailwinds
- The AI Boom Is Becoming an Energy Infrastructure Story
- INDIA NUCLEAR — SHANTI BILL 2025: From Liability Paralysis to a $550–750bn Private-Build Pipeline
- Japan Strategy Weekly | BoJ Hikes to 0.75% Amid Tech Headwinds; Nikkei -2.6%
- New Insurance Bill: Insurance for All by 2047
- Singapore Market Roundup (19-Dec-2025): Yoma Strategic’s earnings stem from its property business.
- Exencial Industry Tidings 19/12/2025
- US EV Charging Infrastructure Tracker – November 2025
- US Valuations: A Bit High. Non-Tech Is More Expensive than Tech. ’26-27 Expectations Too High?
After the Down-Cycle, the Setup Improves: India’s Steel Industry Heads into 2026 with Tailwinds
- Domestic steel prices hit a five-year low in 2025 as Chinese imports, weak utilisation below 80%, and input pressures compressed margins.
- Policy and trade dynamics are turning constructive, as safeguard duties, falling imports, and tighter Chinese export controls begin to rebalance domestic markets.
- Demand momentum is set to re-accelerate in 2026, led by infrastructure execution, housing recovery, EV-linked steel intensity, and early green steel adoption.
The AI Boom Is Becoming an Energy Infrastructure Story
- AI-Driven data centres are breaking a decade of flat U.S. electricity demand, pushing annual growth above historical norms, forcing utilities to expand their capacities.
- Meeting this surge requires an all-of-the-above energy mix, where renewables lead new capacity additions, but natural gas remains the critical balancing fuel amid constraints and grid expansion.
- The most durable beneficiaries are not power generators but midstream and infrastructure players, including grid builders, equipment manufacturers, and materials suppliers, whose revenues are driven by spending and reliability.
INDIA NUCLEAR — SHANTI BILL 2025: From Liability Paralysis to a $550–750bn Private-Build Pipeline
- SHANTI eliminates the liability and monopoly barriers—SDR-indexed operator caps, a sovereign-backed compensation waterfall, AERB independence, and APTEL appellate review convert nuclear into a bankable asset class.
- India shifts from ~8 GW to a 100-GW build mandate, implying ~90 GW of new capacity and ~$550–750 billion of capex, with SMRs and brownfield coal conversions driving first-wave execution.
- Ancing viability hinges on non-recourse leverage (70:30/80:20), long-tenor PPAs/CfDs, ECA underwriting, and fuel security—especially uranium diversification and HALEU access for SMRs
Japan Strategy Weekly | BoJ Hikes to 0.75% Amid Tech Headwinds; Nikkei -2.6%
- Japanese equities ended lower in a volatile week, pressured by global tech headwinds despite a strong Friday rally: Nikkei: -2.6% | TPX -1.2% | JPY 156 (+¥1.03) | 10Y 2.02%
- Japan Steel Works (-15%), Fujikura (-14%), and Yaskawa (-13%) shares fell sharply this week on AI sentiment cooling and valuation worries; long-term themes in nuclear/defence, and AI/robotics remain intact.
- Next week, thinned holiday trading expected; Friday’s Tokyo CPI, unemployment, and retail sales data to test BoJ’s post-rate-hike confidence.
New Insurance Bill: Insurance for All by 2047
- The passage of the Sabka Bima Sabki Raksha (Amendment of Insurance Laws) Bill, 2025 marks a significant regulatory inflection point for the sector and could uplift penetration levels in long-run.
- Key reforms include 100% FDI, easing operational constraints, strengthening consumer protection, opening up of Life Insurance of India (LICI IN) , etc.
- Tighter commission regulation and increased competition may pressure intermediary profitability in the near term, posing earnings risk for platforms like Policybazaar (POLICYBZ IN) (PB Fintech) despite positive long-term sector fundamentals.
Singapore Market Roundup (19-Dec-2025): Yoma Strategic’s earnings stem from its property business.
- Yoma Strategic’s core earnings and cash flow come from its property business, says PhillipCapital.
- Macquarie upgrades Sembcorp to ‘outperform’ and raises price target.
- PhillipCapital downgrades Sats to ‘neutral’ but raises TP after removing exemption.
Exencial Industry Tidings 19/12/2025
- Area under mustard rises 6% to 7.7 mha as of 30 Nov 2025
- PLI scheme to drive technical textiles exports to USD 10 bn by 2030
- Domestic steel demand to grow by 8% in 2025-26: ICRA
US EV Charging Infrastructure Tracker – November 2025
- U.S. had 79,717 public EV stations (up 6.3% YOY) and 239,759 ports (up 1.9% YOY) as of November 2025; California led EV charging station count with 24.1% share.
- ChargePoint dominates Level 2 chargers (33% share), while Tesla leads in DC Fast charging (54% of total DC ports). Electrify America and EVgo follow with ~8% and 7% shares.
- Europe surpassed 1 million charge points; China reached 4.53 million public and 18.64 million total chargers by October 2025.
US Valuations: A Bit High. Non-Tech Is More Expensive than Tech. ’26-27 Expectations Too High?
- US Index is trading at 22x forward earnings. Average since 2014 is 18.9x. Historical comparisons are misleading because market composition has changed drastically.
- Tech grows 2.5x faster than non-Tech, generates margins 2.5x higher, ROE 2x higher. As Tech grows faster with higher profitability, it lifts up the overall market. Valuations reflect that.
- Is 22x forward earnings too high? Price to Book compared to Return on Equity does not look expensive. The market is getting more expensive because profitability (ROE) is increasing.
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