In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan | Markets Rally as Trump Tempers Rhetoric
- Singapore Banks – Charge off Rates on Cards Are Rising Substantially Through 4Q24
- Thematic Report: Credit Rating Agencies – Boring but Beautiful
- China & HK Strategy: 1Q25 Preview – The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
- Japan Morning Connction: Tech Surging with Trump Signalling Zero China Tariffs on a Trade Deal
- Hardman & Co Insight: REITs – a much more positive outlook
- Powering the Future: India’s Trillion-Rupee Energy Revolution
Ohayo Japan | Markets Rally as Trump Tempers Rhetoric
- US stocks surged Wednesday as President Trump signaled he would not fire Fed Chair Powell and suggested Chinese tariffs may be reduced
- Nintendo reported overwhelming demand for its Nintendo Switch 2, with 2.2 million lottery applications for the first sale on its official mail order site
- FANUC has postponed disclosing its consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026 due to significant uncertainties including U.S. tariffs
Singapore Banks – Charge off Rates on Cards Are Rising Substantially Through 4Q24
- MAS releases quarterly granular data on Singapore banks’ credit card charge-offs and the figures are rising sharply
- It is not easily visible in banks’ own interim results, so that we must use the MAS data as a window on card credit metrics
- Credit card charge off rates are now (4Q24) 5.4% vs 4.2% YoY while the total charge-offs are now SGD110.0m in 4Q24 vs SGDm74.7m in 4Q23
Thematic Report: Credit Rating Agencies – Boring but Beautiful
- Strong Growth Potential: CRAs are well-positioned to benefit from India’s credit cycle revival, with projected revenue growth of 13-15% CAGR through FY28, supported by rising corporate capex and regulatory demand.
- Evolving Business Model: Agencies are diversifying beyond traditional ratings into ESG assessments, risk analytics, and digital platforms, creating new, scalable revenue opportunities.
- Improved Credibility and Resilience: Post-IL&FS reforms have enhanced governance and transparency, helping restore trust and reinforce CRAs’ role as critical pillars of India’s financial system.
China & HK Strategy: 1Q25 Preview – The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
- On average, companies under our coverage are forecast to see a 47.3% YoY growth in net profit in 1Q25. Their results should be a pointer for the outlook in 2025.
- Good results are expected at Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK), Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK), COSCO Shipping Hldgs (1919 HK), Air China Ltd (753 HK), and CNBM (3323 HK).
- Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), Xinhua Winshare (811 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transp. (1138 HK), and China Longyuan Power (916 HK) will see weaker 1Q25.
Japan Morning Connction: Tech Surging with Trump Signalling Zero China Tariffs on a Trade Deal
- Intel jumping on plans to cut its bloated workforce and streamline management.
- EV plays should pick up after Tesla held after mkt gains from yesterday.
- Boeing numbers will help the heavies with better FCF and production outlooks.
Hardman & Co Insight: REITs – a much more positive outlook
- Hardman & Co has carried out several assessments of the REITs sector in the past; in 2024, we looked at whether they represented fair value in terms of their share prices compared with the average discount to NAV at which share prices traded over several historical cycles.
- We concluded, at that point, that REITs were trading at very close to the historical, long-run average but that the macroeconomic momentum was not strong enough to encourage us to view prospects for REIT share price performance positively.
- Since then, the share prices of many REITs have fallen in absolute and relative terms.
Powering the Future: India’s Trillion-Rupee Energy Revolution
- Record Rs.8.89 trillion invested in electricity sector during March 2025 quarter, proposing to add 133 GW of capacity to India’s grid.
- Major nuclear power surge with Jindal planning 18 GW plant and NTPC’s 4.2 GW Chhattisgarh project, transforming India’s energy landscape.
- Five states lead Rs.13.8 trillion annual investment push with 70% directed toward renewable energy projects across the country.
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