In today’s briefing:
- SEBI Vs Jane Street: India’s Most Shocking Index Manipulation Case Yet
- Japan Strategy Weekly | Positioning Caution Ahead of Tariff Risk
- India’s K-Shaped Consumption: A Deep Dive into the RBI’s Latest Warnings
- AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 04/07/2025
- Japan Steel: From Domestic Giant to Export-Driven Value Play
SEBI Vs Jane Street: India’s Most Shocking Index Manipulation Case Yet
- SEBI has cracked down on Jane Street Group, a global trading giant, for manipulating the BANKNIFTY index during expiry days using coordinated cash and F&O trades.
- The Group allegedly pushed up prices in morning sessions to create misleading signals, and then profited massively by taking opposite positions in options.
- SEBI estimates illegal gains of INR 43,289 crore in Index Options over a two-year period, primarily through this strategy.
Japan Strategy Weekly | Positioning Caution Ahead of Tariff Risk
- Japanese equities reversed early gains to close lower on the week (Nikkei -0.8%, Topix -0.4%) after breaching the 40,000 level on Monday
- Trade friction is re-emerging as a key geopolitical overhang ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline
- Yaskawa’s profit guidance cut (FY26 OP -14% YoY to ¥43bn vs prior +20%) signals subdued industrial capex ahead, with tariff policy weighing on visibility in FA demand
India’s K-Shaped Consumption: A Deep Dive into the RBI’s Latest Warnings
- RBI’s latest report shows India’s consumption growth is increasingly driven by the wealthy, using more credit, while lower-income groups show stress.
- This K-shaped recovery raises concerns about inclusive growth, as benefits are concentrated, limiting broad-based economic stability and job creation.
- While overall growth may appear strong, the uneven distribution of consumption highlights the need for policies promoting broader financial access for sustainable development.
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 04/07/2025
- Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Under review: Potential demerger – The management of Chariot is considering splitting the company in two entities, one focusing on upstream oil and gas and the other on renewable power.
- The latter will also house the hydrogen and water assets.
- Pending further details, we are placing the company under review.
Japan Steel: From Domestic Giant to Export-Driven Value Play
- Once driven by domestic infrastructure and shipbuilding, Japan’s steel industry is now navigating aging demand and declining consumption by pivoting to exports and specialty steel.
- Japanese steelmakers are embracing high-grade flat steel exports, electric arc furnace (EAF) transitions, and decarbonization-linked innovation — while deepening select offshore bets like AM/NS India and JSW Steel.
- JFE offers deep value via JSW exposure; Kobe adds margin stability through EAF and engineering, while Nippon faces capex strain and U.S. Steel integration risk.
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