In today’s briefing:
- Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?
- TSMC Q225. Surfing The AI Tidal Wave With Style
- Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside
- GOOGL: Q2 Vol Pricing, Performance Trends, and Earnings Setup
- TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook Post Strong Q2: Our Model Says “EXTREME OVERBOUGHT CONDITION”
- Smartphone 2Q25: Boring Boring
Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?
- Founder Kim reportedly looking to offload his 21.5% stake, with EQT eyeing a ~30% control block including Shinhan’s. No succession plans, deal said to be under serious review.
- Kim’s control premium ask could trigger Korea’s first test case of expanded fiduciary duty, with minority holders potentially suing if tender terms aren’t seen as fair under new rules.
- Buyer likely prepping a Q3 tender offer; key watch is how minority premium stacks vs control block — could be Korea’s first de facto test case of mandatory tender mechanics.
TSMC Q225. Surfing The AI Tidal Wave With Style
- TSMC reported Q225 revenues of $30.1 billion, up 44% YoY, up 17.8% QoQ and handily beating the high end of the $29.2 billion guidance.
- Full year 2025 guidance raised to 30% YoY growth, and that may still not be enough
- Resumption of H20 sales to China not yet baked into forecast, an army of ex Intel employees coming on the job market & potential Fx reversal are all possible tailwinds
Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside
- Vivendi trades at a 37.7% discount to NAV, with a mandated buyout by Bolloré offering a realistic upside of 22–37% within six months pending French Supreme Court review.
- The AMF has ruled that Bolloré must launch a tender offer. Vivendi’s simplified structure, anchored by UMG, enables clear valuation through a detailed SOTP showing €5.26/share NAV.
- With liquidity exceeding €3bn, Bolloré can finance a buyout of minority shareholders. Even conservative pricing scenarios imply strong returns for arbitrage investors seeking event-driven upside.
GOOGL: Q2 Vol Pricing, Performance Trends, and Earnings Setup
- GOOGL is set to release Q2 earnings on Wednesday, July 23 after the close, having rallied 15.39% since Q1 results.
- Q2 has historically delivered strong average returns and the largest average absolute 1-day move.
- We explore how volatility and past earnings reactions frame expectations for the upcoming release.
TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook Post Strong Q2: Our Model Says “EXTREME OVERBOUGHT CONDITION”
- As reported by Patrick Liao and William Keating , Taiwan Semiconductor (2330 TT) is currently in very good shape, for multiple reasons, I invite you to read their insights.
- The problem is: the stock closed at 1155 on Friday, blowing past through the roof of what our model has identified as a very extremely overbought “Tails” move.
- We said BUY in June, and know market euphoria can defy models when sentiment takes over, but our tools consistently flag overstretched conditions — a clear caution to late-stage buyers!
Smartphone 2Q25: Boring Boring
- IDC and Counterpoint released their 2Q25 smartphone estimates. Smartphone units increased 1-2% YoY. Best performer: Samsung +8% YoY, but this didn’t help 2Q operating profits. Vivo +5%, Apple +2%.
- The smartphone market is desperately flat – or in slow decline. Smartphone is 76% of revenues for Qualcomm, 57% for Mediatek, 50% Apple and Xiaomi, 35% Samsung, 31% TSMC. Problem?
- For Semiconductor firms (QCOM, MTK, TSM), chips ASP increases 10-15% at each generation, between node migration (N3, N2) and increasing AI functionalities. For hardware vendors (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi), it’s worse.
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