In today’s briefing:
- Intel: A Refreshing Direct Tone from New Management that Doesn’t Deny Issues
- Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Latest AAPL Results — Taiwan Suppliers Well Placed for Monday Re-Open
- KPIT Tech: Strong Q3Y25 Despite Challenging Environment
- Lam Research Corporation: Can Its Advanced Packaging & High Bandwidth Memory Expansion Reinforce Footprint In The Semiconductor Landscape?- Major Drivers
- Avant Corp (3836 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update
- Freebit (3843) Buys Out Minorities in Giga Prize (3830) – Light, But Tough to Block
- Samsung 4Q24: Weak Again, Weak Outlook, Lack of Catalysts on the Horizon
- SAP: Net New Customer Acquisition to Strengthen Its Leadership In Enterprise Application Software! – Major Drivers
- T-Mobile US: Can Its Spectrum Advantage Give It An Edge Over Rivals
- Net One Systems (7518 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
Intel: A Refreshing Direct Tone from New Management that Doesn’t Deny Issues
- Market looks happy about Intel 4Q result / 1Q guidance. There’s actually a fait bit of poor news for 2025. But the tone / narrative is a lot better.
- 2025: Product margins under pressure, Foundry margins better if 18A EUV delivers. Server share loss to be fixed. No GPU. Capex reduced to US$20bn.
- How much do you pay for “we began the process of resizing our expense structure to support more modest long-term growth”. The stock trades at 13x 2025, 11x 2026 EPS.
Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Latest AAPL Results — Taiwan Suppliers Well Placed for Monday Re-Open
- Apple 1Q25 Results — Overall Price-Supportive for Taiwan Supplier Share Prices When the Taiwan Market Re-Opens Monday
- Why Zhen Ding Technology Holding (4958 TT) and Kinsus Interconnect Tech (3189 TT) Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple’s AI Trajectory
- Increasingly sophisticated Apple products require significantly more complex PCBs & interconnect solutions, especially as advanced packaging has become a key enabler of high-performance computing.
KPIT Tech: Strong Q3Y25 Despite Challenging Environment
- KPIT Technologies (“KPIT”) reported decent growth despite challenging macroeconomic environment in the automotive OEM segment. Q3FY25 revenue grew 17.4% YoY and 2.0% QoQ in constant currency (CC) terms.
- Led by improved efficiency and revenue mix, EBITDA margin came in stronger than expected at 21.1%. This led KPIT to raise its FY25 EBITDA guidance to 21%+ from 20.5%+.
- Deal engagement has been strong. TCV came in at $236mm vs typical run-rate of $150mm+. Deal pipeline is also healthy and the management is expecting substantial closures by H1FY26.
Lam Research Corporation: Can Its Advanced Packaging & High Bandwidth Memory Expansion Reinforce Footprint In The Semiconductor Landscape?- Major Drivers
- Lam Research Corporation reported its earnings for the December 2024 quarter with results largely exceeding guidance midpoints, showcasing strong operational execution and strategic positioning.
- The company reported a revenue of $4.38 billion, an increase of 5% from the previous quarter.
- This growth was driven by a balance of increased spending in the DRAM and NAND segments, despite muted NAND spending levels earlier in the year.
Avant Corp (3836 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update
- Revenue rose to JPY14.0bn (+19.3% YoY), with operating profit margin increasing to 18.1% (+2.0pp YoY).
- Outsourcing and software businesses drove revenue growth, with order backlog in Q2 FY06/25 at JPY4.8bn (+24.0% YoY).
- Consolidated employees increased to 1,567, with substantial profit growth in Corporate Management Solutions Business in 1H FY06/25.
Freebit (3843) Buys Out Minorities in Giga Prize (3830) – Light, But Tough to Block
- Today, Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP) announced it would launch a Tender Offer next Monday to buy out minorities in 60.9%-owned Giga Prize (3830 JP).
- The multiple is not terribly impressive. It could be better. But they only need 5.8% of the 39.1% they do not own to get this over the hump.
- Synergies are clear. They are expected. They are not priced in the valuation. This is disappointing. Again.
Samsung 4Q24: Weak Again, Weak Outlook, Lack of Catalysts on the Horizon
- Weak results again in 4Q24. Weak outlook for 1H25 as Mobile, PC demand remains weak (ie DRAM, NAND, Display).
- Samsung expects its “optimized” HBM3E to ramp from 2Q25. HBM4 in 2H25. Logic 2nm production in 2026.
- The stock is cheapish at ~8x 2025-26EPS but with a lack of catalyst, visibility, effectiveness of managements changes. Revisit mid-2025.
SAP: Net New Customer Acquisition to Strengthen Its Leadership In Enterprise Application Software! – Major Drivers
- SAP’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial outcomes underline a significant phase in its continuing evolution toward cloud-driven solutions and artificial intelligence.
- The results reflect a substantial transition from a traditional software company to a more agile, cloud-focused entity.
- This shift is evidenced by a 40% increase in total cloud backlog, reaching €63 billion, and a 27% rise in cloud revenue, which now accounts for half of SAP’s total revenue.
T-Mobile US: Can Its Spectrum Advantage Give It An Edge Over Rivals
- T-Mobile U.S. delivered a strong performance in 2024, as indicated by their latest earnings call.
- Key highlights include record growth in customer acquisition, solid financial metrics, continued network improvements, and strategic investments that position the company for future expansion.
- T-Mobile’s 2024 results were marked by substantial gains in postpaid phone customers, with more than 3 million net additions for the third consecutive year.
Net One Systems (7518 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
- In cumulative Q3 FY03/25, orders were JPY156.7bn (+22.1% YoY), with revenue at JPY155.4bn (+8.7% YoY).
- Operating profit increased 18.3% YoY, with notable growth in Enterprise and Public businesses, but declined in Telecom Carrier.
- Net One’s shares are scheduled for delisting, leading to withdrawal of full-year earnings forecast for FY03/25.
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