In today’s briefing:
- Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening
- Adobe Has The Potential To Turn AI Into Billions—Can Firefly & GenStudio Redefine Creative Monetization?
- Legacy Business Fuels Kinatico’s SaaS Ambition
- ASML 2Q25 Conf Call: Trying to Clear Doubts on EUV Growth and China Demand – Short Update
- ASML Q225 Earnings. Solid Results, Forecasting 15% Growth In 2025, Down 7% In Pre Market. But Why?
- TCS – Fighting on All Fronts: Gen AI, Competition & Macro Uncertainty. Underperformance Ahead
- ASML 2Q25 Beat but the Steep Slowdown in 2H25 Is Confirmed, It Will Most Likely Extend to 1H26
- What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 16 July (ASML Holding | Fugro)
- Zee Entertainment: A Forensic Perspective
- Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of the Next Semiconductor Solutions Company
Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening
- Nvidia and AMD are set to resume scaled-down AI chip exports to China, marking a partial reversal of earlier U.S. export bans.
- China retains a near-monopoly on REE refining, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, and its March 2025 export halt highlighted the leverage it holds over high-tech and defence supply chains.
- While markets rallied on the chip announcements, IV data suggests diverging risk expectations across Nvidia, AMD, and MP Materials, reflecting broader uncertainty around the durability and scope of this reopening.
Adobe Has The Potential To Turn AI Into Billions—Can Firefly & GenStudio Redefine Creative Monetization?
- Adobe Inc.’s second quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025 demonstrate a strong performance, marked by significant revenue growth and strategic advancements in its core business segments.
- The company’s total revenue reached $5.87 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, with a noteworthy contribution from its Digital Media sector, which achieved $4.35 billion in revenue.
- This sector’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew to $18.09 billion, reflecting a 12.1% increase.
Legacy Business Fuels Kinatico’s SaaS Ambition
- As Kinatico transitions to a new compliance SaaS solution, the legacy business provides funding for the new service development and a pool of potential customers
ASML 2Q25 Conf Call: Trying to Clear Doubts on EUV Growth and China Demand – Short Update
- Stock is down -10%. The 2026 revenue comment (“while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage“), confusion on EUV growth should explain it.
- Number of EUV machines sold is flat but ASP is up 30% as machine’s throughput is up 30%. EUV revenue growth is in the mix, not units.
- China: I don’t know what they tried to say. Healthy demand in China, not falling off a cliff. But wait, China 1H25 revenue have declined -28% YoY.
ASML Q225 Earnings. Solid Results, Forecasting 15% Growth In 2025, Down 7% In Pre Market. But Why?
- ASML today reported second quarter revenues of €7.7 billion, bang at the top of the guided range, flat QoQ and up 23% YoY
- Guided 2025 at 15% growth (~€35 billion), a big step up in confidence from the €30-€35 billion range given last quarter
- Comments regarding uncertainty about 2026 outlook and tariff impacts likely led to the >7% sell off currently happening in pre-market trading.
TCS – Fighting on All Fronts: Gen AI, Competition & Macro Uncertainty. Underperformance Ahead
- Broad-based Weakness:Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) ‘s revenue declined 3.1% YoY in CC; domestic business fell sharply due to BSNL, while international demand remained soft across key verticals.
- GenAI Pivot Amid Margin Pressure: TCS is shifting from GenAI pilots to scaled deployments, investing heavily in AI skilling, while margins face pressure from underutilization and delayed deal ramps.
- Outlook Cautious Despite TCV Growth: TCV rose 13.2% YoY to $9.4 Bn, but mega deals are missing; execution delays and macro concerns cloud near-term visibility.
ASML 2Q25 Beat but the Steep Slowdown in 2H25 Is Confirmed, It Will Most Likely Extend to 1H26
- ASML has released 2Q25 financials but the conf call is at 3pm. 2Q25 beat by 10% at Operating and Net Income level. 2Q25 bookings are low at €5.5bn.
- 3Q25 weak revenue guidance, -9% below Consensus. But ASML maintains its 2025 guidance (+15% YoY or € 32.5bn, inline). Key problem: 1H25 revenue growth 34% YoY, 2H25 growth 2% YoY.
- Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impacts of China lower spending, Mature node lower spending, multiple delays or cuts (Intel, Samsung) are fading away.
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 16 July (ASML Holding | Fugro)
- In this edition: • ASML Holding | expects 15% FY25 net sales increase with a 52% gross margin • Fugro | awarded a 7-year framework agreement with EirGrid
Zee Entertainment: A Forensic Perspective
- Shareholders recently rejected Zee’s promoter-led capital infusion, limiting the founding family’s stake increase and influence.
- The failed fundraise underscores persistent questions about financial transparency and management’s past conduct. This decision further impacts market perception and investor confidence.
- This insight covers the whole story from the beginning of the allegations to the current status of the allegations and fundraising.
Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of the Next Semiconductor Solutions Company
- The company describes itself as a pioneer and leading provider of ultra-low power semiconductor solutions designed to address the significant power consumption challenges of general purpose and AI compute.
- For the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024, they generated net sales of $15.7 million and $15.2 million, respectively.
- The sector in which this company operates is one that is in favor. Powering the AI trade is one that investors are highly engaged in at the moment.
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