In today’s briefing:
- Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Denso Exits as Stock Price Falters
- Renesas Electronics Block – Well Flagged, Clean up but Momentum Isn’t Great
- STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Strong Outperformance for STAR50 Changes
- PayTM Block – US$242m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest
- EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): IPO Window Opening Up; Buyers Pour in for Trading Platform
- UK Index June 2025 Annual Review: GAMA Headlines F250, F100 Stays Quiet, All-Share Reshuffles
- China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook
- Apple Faces Crosswinds: $900M Tariff Hit, Legal Storms, and AI Lag – What’s Next?
- META PLATFORMS, INC. – Equity Research Flash Note – April 4, 2025
- Marubun Corp (7537 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Denso Exits as Stock Price Falters
- Denso Corp (6902 JP) is looking to raise up to JPY137bn (US$940m) by selling 73.9m shares of Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) to international investors.
- The indicative price range is JPY 1,812-1,848/share, a discount of 1-2.95% to Monday’s close. The placement is 4.1% of shares outstanding and is 4.7 days of ADV.
- We do not expect any passive buying at the time of settlement of the placement shares. The earliest passive buying will take place in August and September.
Renesas Electronics Block – Well Flagged, Clean up but Momentum Isn’t Great
- Denso Corp (6902 JP) is looking to raise US$940m via selling its remaining stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP).
- DENSO last sold some of its stake nearly a year ago and hence, this deal is well flagged.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Strong Outperformance for STAR50 Changes
- With the review period complete, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4 changes for the STAR100 Index in June.
- We estimate turnover of 2.26% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 5.05% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 8.1bn (US$1.11bn).
- There are multiple stocks that are forecast adds or deletes for other indices and the passive flows will be a lot larger than just for the STAR50/STAR100 indices.
PayTM Block – US$242m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest
- Antfin (Netherlands) Holding B.V. (Antfin) is looking to raise up to US$242m via selling a 4% stake in Paytm (PAYTM IN).
- Antfin has been selling off its stake since it pared around 12% in its Nov’21 IPO. As of date of writing, it had a 9.85% stake remaining in the firm.
- In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.
EToro Group Ltd (ETOR): IPO Window Opening Up; Buyers Pour in for Trading Platform
- An early channel check of this deal revealed that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed with continued 1-on-1 conversions. The books close Monday at 4pm.
- The company is targeting the “next generation” of investor with encouraging growth and has the metrics to show they are meaningfully headed in the right direction.
- Our sources state that want to be involved with the name and we believe an explosive debut could be on tap for this IPO.
UK Index June 2025 Annual Review: GAMA Headlines F250, F100 Stays Quiet, All-Share Reshuffles
- Gamma Communications (GAMA LN) is the flagship addition forecast at the review at a market cap of ~$1.7bn following its listing transfer from AIM to Main Market on 2 May.
- The ~$1.5bn tender offer of BBGI is expected to close prior to the review. Current F250 replacement candidates are Wickes Group (WIX LN) and Pantheon Infrastructure (PINT LN).
- Mobico Group (MCG LN) and Bellevue Healthcare Trust (BBH LN) are the main deletion candidates set to migrate from F250 to SmallCap.
China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook
- Our previous insight indicated a potential buy opportunity immediately followed by higher prices, but China Mobile (941 HK) hasn’t really rallied much since our signal was released, 2 weeks ago.
- Monday, news about a US-China tariffs deal sent global stocks sharply higher. However, the stock closed the day at 84.25, our model’s Q2 profit target (i.e. not a strong rally…).
- Our time model also indicates an overbought state (74% probability of reversal): we’re not bearish on the stock, but in this insight we will discuss a few tactical scenarios.
Apple Faces Crosswinds: $900M Tariff Hit, Legal Storms, and AI Lag – What’s Next?
- Apple reported strong financial results for Q2 of the fiscal year 2025, achieving revenue of $95.4 billion, which represents a 5% increase compared to the previous year.
- This growth was at the high end of the company’s guidance range, and the diluted earnings per share stood at $1.65, marking an 8% year-over-year increase and setting a record for the March quarter.
- The company’s Services segment achieved an all-time revenue high, with a 12% growth year-on-year, indicating robust performance across Apple’s diverse service offerings.
META PLATFORMS, INC. – Equity Research Flash Note – April 4, 2025
- Our estimations for FY 2025 annual revenue range at around $205,590 million and for 2026 at around $258,431 million.
- The company’s annual revenue reached $164,501 million in 2024 compared to $134,902 million in 2023, posting an increase by 21.94%.
- META’s gross profit for FY 2024 was $134,340 million, increased by 23.31% compared to $108,943 million for the corresponding period of 2023.
Marubun Corp (7537 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- Net sales decreased 10.8% YoY to JPY210.8bn, with operating income down 31.0% YoY to JPY9.0bn.
- Ordinary income increased 12.7% YoY to JPY6.3bn, supported by foreign exchange gains from yen appreciation.
- Dividend forecast revised to JPY66.0 per share, with a payout ratio of 40.4%, up from JPY52.0.
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