In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] TOPIX July 2025 FFW Rebalance – $3bn+ a Side to Trade
- Samsung Electronics: Share Buyback of 3.9 Trillion Won
- Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 3.9 Trillion Won Buyback Plan Announcement
- Lens Technology A/H Trading – Decent Demand, Helped by A-Share Rally
- Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): Trading Debut
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.
- Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO
- Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525): Niche Leader in Batch Deposition Tools
- McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of PE-Backed Education Company
[Quiddity Index] TOPIX July 2025 FFW Rebalance – $3bn+ a Side to Trade
- Four times a year, the TSE reassesses free float weights for listed stocks. Indices run by the TSE adjust their index shares (shares out x FFW x coefficient) in Jan/Apr/Jul/October.
- Yesterday, the TSE announced its changes for this quarter. Combined with other adjustments on 30 July at the close, we expect 190+ events.
- For now, we expect the trade is about US$3.3bn a side. At the top of the buy side, 16 names with more than $30mm to buy, averaging 5x ADV.
Samsung Electronics: Share Buyback of 3.9 Trillion Won
- Samsung Electronics announced today that it plans to conduct a large scale buyback worth 3.9 trillion won, of which 2.8 trillion won will be cancelled.
- Samsung Electronics reported consolidated sales of 74 trillion won and operating profit of 4.6 trillion won in 2Q 2025, down 0.1% and 55.9% YoY, respectively.
- The average daily trading volume (ADTV) of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) (common shares) is 15.43 million. Therefore, the share buyback of 56.89 million (common shares) represents 3.7x of ADTV.
Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play
- If stock comp stays all in commons like last time, cancellation hits ~1.40% of SO in commons, 1.72% in prefs — setting up preferreds for relative outperformance.
- If they cancel the full pool, Samsung Life + Fire’s stake hits 10.14%, forcing a ₩500B block — nearly 2x the ₩280B print back in Feb.
- Again, odds are the overage hits the tape again — watch for a potential block print before the third leg wraps, like what played out in Feb.
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 3.9 Trillion Won Buyback Plan Announcement
- Douglas Kim and Sanghyun Park have discussed Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)‘s 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan announced on July 8th. Read the details in their insights.
- Our latest insight maintained our BUY recommendation: the stock rallied during the following 2 weeks, reaching 64,700, then was marked as “very overbought” in our latest Global Tactical Weekly view.
- The stock started to pull back last Friday, after reaching extremely overbought levels (64700). This insight presents a tactical view for Samsung Electronics direction, for the next 2-3 weeks.
Lens Technology A/H Trading – Decent Demand, Helped by A-Share Rally
- Lens Technology (300433 CH), a precision manufacturing solution provider, raised around US$700m in its H-share listing.
- Lens Technology (LT) is one of the leading players in precision structural parts and modules integrated solutions for both consumer electronics and smart vehicles interaction systems.
- We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.
Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): Trading Debut
- Lens Technology (6613 HK) priced its H Share at HK$18.18 to raise HK$4,768 million (US$607 million) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
- I discussed the H Share listing in Lens Technology H Share Listing (6613 HK): The Investment Case.
- Lens had the fourth-highest international oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. The AH discount is attractive in part due to the decent price momentum.
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 3Q25 Outlook Suggests Modest Growth, but FX Could Pose a Headwind.
- Looking ahead to the third quarter, we estimate that TSMC’s revenue in U.S. dollars could grow by approximately 5–10% quarter-over-quarter.
- Buoyed by the AI boom and the recent increase in U.S. semiconductor investment tax credits to 35%, TSMC will achieve its full-year target of 25% growth in U.S. dollar revenue.
- In the second half of the year, as multiple brands launch flagship smartphone chips, TSMC’s N3P process is fully prepared for volume production.
Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO
- Power GaN coming oversupply, an illustration. The fear is a repeat of the SiC situation (large capacity built in China, Wolfspeed filling for bankruptcy protection)
- Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm. Samsung and Intel have the same problem: yields are too low to attract customers.
- Chinese GPU are coming – or IPO are coming? Moore Threads and MetaX approved to list in Shanghai. Tiny revenues, lots of R&D. Biren Technology expected to file in HK.
Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525): Niche Leader in Batch Deposition Tools
- Kokusai has delivered steady growth, with revenue rising from ¥181.8B in FY2021 to ¥238.9B in FY2025 and a strong rebound in profitability.
- It plans to expand capacity, grow service revenue beyond 35%, and launch next-gen tools for GAA logic and 3D memory.
- At ~22x P/E and 12.5x EV/EBITDA, valuations appear fair given its scale, but upside exists if GAA traction and service leverage play out.
McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of PE-Backed Education Company
- McGraw Hill is backed by Platinum Equity and is looking to potentially debut in July.
- For the fiscal years ended March 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, they generated revenue of $2,101.3 million $1,960.5 million and $1,947.8 million, respectively.
- The education sector in which this company operates in is one that has “mixed feelings” amongst IPO investors.
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