In today’s briefing:
- Unloved Japan Roundup: Don’t Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush
- Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.
- It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings
- Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off
- SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025
Unloved Japan Roundup: Don’t Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush
- More than 40 potential turnaround stocks will report Q3 results in the coming weeks.
- The average spread between the lowest and highest street estimate for the stocks on our target list is a gaping 45%. This doesn’t mean what most people think it means.
- Rohm, Taiyo Yuden, Yamato, Hamamatsu, JFE, Tsuruha look nice, but we pass on Shiseido and Mazda.
Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.
- Smartphone 2024 small growth about +5% YoY. PC 2024 small unit growth +4%. Don’t expect much better in 2025 but the Silicon content will increase, both for processor and DRAM.
- Lots of cuts in 2025 Semiconductor Capex. TSMC is up but Samsung, UMC, Intel down. Japan Semi Equipment association has revised down 2025 growth from 10% to 5%.
- Cloud Capex booming. Microsoft announced US$80bn in FY25. Meta at US$60-65bn. TSMC to increase 5-3nm wafer price by 5-10%. The Ai segment of semiconductors is doing extremely well
It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings
- Apple (AAPL US) has been downtrending for the past 4 weeks, reaching deeply oversold levels on both our TIME and PRICE quantitative models. Our models are flashing a BUY signal.
- On January 30th Apple (AAPL US) will release its quarterly earnings: despite the stock’s current underperformance, most analysts remain optimistic about Apple’s future.
- Recently, US President’s Trump announced that Apple was planning a “massive investment” in the U.S. This was part of Trump’s initiative to accelerate major corporate investments in the country.
Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off
- I had a chance to speak to CompoSecure investor relations last week about its imminent spin-off (full notes below) of Resolute Holdings.
- The biggest takeaways are: 1) Resolute Holdings’ only M&A consulting client will be CompoSecure (I had initially thought it could/would focus on other clients).
- 2) The ultimate goal for Resolute is to be a high margin alternative asset manager. 3) Resolute is a taxable spin-off and so CMPO will not be “hyping” the spin-off given CMPO will have to pay taxes based on Resolute’s initiation valuation.
SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025
- SailPoint, a pioneer and leader in identity industry with the best identity governance product, filed to go public in January.
- Thoma Bravo-backed technology company has a best-in-class product within a large market opportunity. They secure large enterprises and grow at scale.
- SailPoint has completed its first IPO in 2017 and raised =$160M. Then, the company was reacquired by Thoma Bravo and now they plan to reportedly go public.
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