In today’s briefing:
- Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher
- ECM Weekly (16 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Kitazato, Primo, Kioxia, Xtalpi, Horizon, Keymed, Wuxi
- 2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, Attractive Valuation Levels To Unwind Bearish Positions
- MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.
- SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Germany Fab Delayed for European Budget Crisis; Fab 21 Project in Arizona.
- Warner Music Group Is Fighting AI With the NO FAKES Act—Why It Could Change the Industry Forever!
Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao
- Local chatter’s building that Samsung Electronics and Kakao might drop value-up disclosures by end-June to mid-July, as both cozy up to the new administration and move into its inner circle.
- Jay Lee’s surprise solo meeting with President Lee marked a turning point, signaling Samsung’s intent to step out of SK’s shadow and take the lead under the new regime.
- Value-Up details aren’t final, but Samsung’s likely to reaffirm >35% payout, while Kakao’s set to focus on ROE improvement and multiple expansion.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher
- TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
- UMC: +2.3% Premium; Can Consider Shorting ADR Premium at Current Level
- ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Long or Short the Spread
ECM Weekly (16 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Kitazato, Primo, Kioxia, Xtalpi, Horizon, Keymed, Wuxi
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) launched its IPO, while Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) has been pre-marketing.
- On the placements front, there were a number of large deals acros the region, along with some large lockup expiries.
2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, Attractive Valuation Levels To Unwind Bearish Positions
- BILL Holdings shares have materially underperformed year-to-date and fell ~51%. Shares saw selling pressure post 2QFY25 earnings as results indicated weak outlook.
- I see limited room for downside given current valuation of ~3x 2025E EV/Revenue (with ~13% growth) and recent acquisition of AvidXchange at a higher multiple.
- I believe BILL’s current attractive valuation levels can be viewed as opportunity to unwind bearish positions and valuation looks more reasonable vs. peers, especially AvidXchange.
MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.
- We anticipate that 2H26 may not be strong for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), and a typical peak season demand is unlikely.
- Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance issued an urgent response: the current unified deadline for the 2025 national subsidy policy remains December 31, 2025.
- Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) recently underperforms among large-cap stocks due to delay in Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) project, affecting next year’s revenue and profit.
SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia
- 2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.
- 2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.
- Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Germany Fab Delayed for European Budget Crisis; Fab 21 Project in Arizona.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s Plan to Build a Plant in Germany Faces Delays.
- TSMC’s Fab 21 Project in Phoenix, Arizona: Progress, Challenges, and Future Plans.
- There remains uncertainty about whether political factors — such as U.S. President Trump’s tariff threats targeting the semiconductor industry— might impact or even reverse TSMC’s investment decision.
Warner Music Group Is Fighting AI With the NO FAKES Act—Why It Could Change the Industry Forever!
- Warner Music Group (WMG) reported its fiscal second-quarter results for the period ended March 31, 2025.
- The company’s financial performance during this period was relatively stable, although it faced a variety of challenges impacting growth.
- Total revenue increased by a modest 1%, with Recorded Music revenue also growing by 1% and Music Publishing revenue by 3%.
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