In today’s briefing:
- Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Mitsumi’s (6479 JP) White Knight Tender Offer at JPY4,500
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)
- PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue
- Plexus Corp Cuts Debt, Boosts Buybacks, & Tightens Inventory—Here’s What Inspires Our Optimism!
- Sabre Corporation: Can Its Modern Technology Infrastructure & AI Integration Aid In Strengthening Competitive Position?
- Shift Inc (3697 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update
- Lucror Analytics – Convertibles Brief
- WingArc1st Inc (4432 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)
- In early February, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share. They had approached in October 2024, and continued approaches through end-January.
- Shibaura’s bankers approached Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) in January. Due diligence, then bids. They bid ¥4,600. Not enough said the SC. Then Trump. Then ¥4,400. Now ¥4,500 accepted 9 April.
- But Trump tariffs relief came 9 April US time. And the Offer Price is below the mid-point of ALL three different financial advisors. I think this is not done yet.
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Mitsumi’s (6479 JP) White Knight Tender Offer at JPY4,500
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) at JPY4,500 per share, a 4.7% premium to Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY4,300 hostile offer.
- The offer is scheduled to start on 23 April, ahead of Yageo’s 7 May start. The Board intends to recommend the Minebea offer and oppose the Yageo offer.
- Due to its low premium to the Yageo offer, at least another bidding round is highly probable, and the Minebea offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation.
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)
- Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) can achieve 25% growth in 2015.
- We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to Apple (AAPL US).
- The stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.
PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue
- PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.
- ~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.
- There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.
Plexus Corp Cuts Debt, Boosts Buybacks, & Tightens Inventory—Here’s What Inspires Our Optimism!
- Plexus Corp. reported strong financial performance and strategic strides in its first quarter of the fiscal year 2025.
- The company recorded robust revenue of $976 million, meeting its guidance, with performance propelled by agility in response to customer needs and commitments to improving working capital efficiency.
- The revenue forecast for the full fiscal year anticipates growth across its market sectors, supported by new program ramps and share gains, despite mixed sector trends.
Sabre Corporation: Can Its Modern Technology Infrastructure & AI Integration Aid In Strengthening Competitive Position?
- Sabre Corporation’s latest financial update provides a mixed outlook, reflecting both the strengths and challenges the company faces as it moves forward.
- In 2024, Sabre reported notable achievements, including a 4% year-on-year revenue increase reaching $3.03 billion and a substantial 53% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $517 million, surpassing initial guidance.
- The company credits its growth to steady revenue increases, cost management, and major commercial wins, all contributing to margin expansions and enhanced operational efficiency.
Shift Inc (3697 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update
- In 1H FY08/25, the company reported sales of JPY61.7bn, operating profit of JPY8.1bn, and net income of JPY4.5bn.
- Software Testing Related Services segment recorded JPY39.6bn in sales, JPY14.6bn gross profit, and JPY10.5bn operating profit.
- Software Development Related Services segment achieved JPY19.7bn sales, JPY5.1bn gross profit, and JPY1.6bn operating profit.
Lucror Analytics – Convertibles Brief
- In today’s Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo
Credit markets widened yesterday, with the iTraxx X-Over up 36 bps at 428 bps.
Equities were mixed, with European bourses sliding 2.2-4.2%, as the markets closed before US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on additional tariffs for all countries except China.
WingArc1st Inc (4432 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
- In FY02/25, revenue was JPY28.7bn (+11.5% YoY), operating profit JPY8.2bn (+12.4% YoY), and EBITDA JPY9.7bn (+12.2% YoY).
- BDS sales revenue rose 13.7% YoY to JPY18.8bn, with cloud services revenue growing 18.8% YoY.
- For FY02/26, the company forecasts revenue of JPY30.3bn (+5.5% YoY) and operating profit of JPY8.9bn (+8.3% YoY).
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