In today’s briefing:
- Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy
- Horizon Robotics Placement – Another Opportunistic Raising
- NVIDIA’S Genius Partnership With OpenAI May Be About More Than You Think
- Tekscend Photomask IPO – The Negatives – Market Share
- Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case
- Tencent/Netease: Both Received One Approval in September
- NVIDIA: An Options Strategy for Riding the AI Data Center Waves
- FactSet Research: Will Seamless Data Ecosystems Give It An Edge Against Refinitiv & Bloomberg?
- Full Report – TOREX SEMICONDUCTOR (6616 JP) – September 25, 2025
- Palantir Is Dominating AI In 2025—But Its Valuation Is Terrifying!
Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy
- Shift Inc (3697 JP) runs a software quality assurance testing business. 400% revenue growth in 5 years, but this year to Aug25 is “only” 17.5% according to Q3 results guidance.
- It was a “growth stock” for a long while, and large long-only growth investors flocked to the name. In the past several months many have exited.
- The stock will be included in the Nikkei 225 Average next Tuesday. The supply/demand dynamics here to there are interesting. Afterwards they may be more interesting.
Horizon Robotics Placement – Another Opportunistic Raising
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Oct’24 IPO and another US$600m via a placement in June’25. It’s back again to raise another US$834m via a top-up placement.
- Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
- In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
NVIDIA’S Genius Partnership With OpenAI May Be About More Than You Think
- OpenAI and NVIDIA announced an audacious alliance under which the latter will invest $100 billion in the former
- That investment will be staged to coincide with each completed gigawatt of compute capacity, up to ten gigawatts in total, which the two companies are planning to jointly install
- Is this NVIDIA cutting out the middleman and setting up their very own private hyperscale enterprise to lease their GPUs directly to OpenAI? Uh oh!
Tekscend Photomask IPO – The Negatives – Market Share
- Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) (TP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, aims to raise around US$830m in its Japan IPO.
- TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.
- In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.
Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case
- Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. It is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$832 million). Pricing is on 30 September.
- In Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
- The bear case rests on its worrisome revenue growth trends, weakening lead revenue indicators, cash burn, and large post-IPO share overhang.
Tencent/Netease: Both Received One Approval in September
- China announced game approval for the September batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
- The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
- Both Tencent and Netease received approval for one game in September.
NVIDIA: An Options Strategy for Riding the AI Data Center Waves
- NVIDIA’s has a strong position in the AI industry, but global trade policies introduce short-term uncertainties. Strong revenues and cash position buffer against policy-driven obstacles, particularly concerning its China revenues.
- We highlight NVIDIA’s technological leadership, including its full-stack computing infrastructure and rapid platform transitions. External pressures weigh on projected revenues, including export restrictions and increasing competition from major tech companies.
- We see potentially overpriced implied volatility. This strategy aims to generate premium while managing risks associated with price movements, especially in the context of evolving geopolitical and competitive landscapes.
FactSet Research: Will Seamless Data Ecosystems Give It An Edge Against Refinitiv & Bloomberg?
- FactSet Research Systems delivered strong fourth quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 results, reflecting its continued resilience and capability to navigate shifting market conditions.
- The firm reported a 5.4% revenue growth rate to $2.3 billion for the fiscal year, and highlighted a significant increase in organic Annual Subscription Value (ASV), with the fourth quarter seeing the largest ASV addition in its history at $81.8 million.
- This ASV growth, especially notable at 5.7% sequentially, signals robust demand for FactSet’s offerings, particularly in wealth and asset management sectors, driven by an increasing appetite for data solutions.
Full Report – TOREX SEMICONDUCTOR (6616 JP) – September 25, 2025
- As can be seen from the graph below, the major JPY 12.6bn capex initiative to secure production capacity to enable consolidated net sales to increase by 1.5x (announced in May-2022) peaked in FY24/3 and depreciation peaked in FY25/3.
- With confirmation of the upturn in the silicon cycle, earnings have entered a full-fledged recovery, with Q1 OP posting a high 41% progress ratio relative to the 4-year historical average of 27%. The key takeaway from the graph below is the strong recovery in EBITDA.
- The current high P/E is a common feature at the start of cyclical recoveries, while EV/EBITDA has only just returned to its long-term historical average (see P21).
Palantir Is Dominating AI In 2025—But Its Valuation Is Terrifying!
- Palantir Technologies has been one of 2025’s biggest winners in the AI equity space, delivering a jaw-dropping rally of nearly 140% year-to-date.
- Following a selloff in mid-August that briefly interrupted its meteoric ascent, the stock has rebounded strongly and remains a key beneficiary of enterprise AI spending and hyperscaler capital expenditure cycles.
- The company’s Q2 results added fuel to the rally, showcasing record-breaking revenue of over $1 billion, a 48% year-overyear increase, and a staggering Rule of 40 score of 94%.
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