In today’s briefing:
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Near Fresh Spread Short Level; ChipMOS Rare Discount
- Introducing the Unusual Policy Narrative Now Pushed: Korea–Japan Economic Integration
- Pony AI Secondary HK Offering – Needs to Correct Some More
- SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in Dec, Big DELTA Capping
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple’s Macbook Windfall; Yageo’s Rally; TSMC’s Massive Rare Earth Stockpile
- Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Legal Developments: WNDR, ABCP, STAA, GLXZ, PLYM, ASLI:L
- Qualcomm’s Weird AI Announcement
- Intel Inside the Foundry Race — Will 18A & 14A Nodes Change Everything?
- Groww Pre-IPO – Scaling Fast in a Competitive Market
- Via Transportation (VIA US): US Index Inclusion in 2025; Going Global in 2026
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Near Fresh Spread Short Level; ChipMOS Rare Discount
- TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Near Levels to Open Fresh ADR Spread Short
- ASE: +0.3% Premium; Good Level to Long the ADR Spread
- ChipMOS: -7.5% Discount; Local Shares Rally Makes ADR Deeply Discounted
Introducing the Unusual Policy Narrative Now Pushed: Korea–Japan Economic Integration
- Chey Tae‑won’s Korea–Japan integration push is fresh tape—unpriced and unconsumed—unlike the exhausted dividend tax story, making it the real policy‑momentum trade to watch.
- Korea’s export model is fading, but a $6T Korea–Japan bloc plus CPTPP buzz offers a fresh policy‑momentum catalyst, with AI/data angles luring incremental global flows.
- Korea–Japan cooperation isn’t a real bloc yet, but it trades like a policy theme—Chey’s 3PRO push makes it a headline‑driven short‑term play ripe for desks.
Pony AI Secondary HK Offering – Needs to Correct Some More
- Pony AI (PONY US) plans to raise around US$825m in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
- We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note.
- In this note, we talk about the deal structure and updates since then.
SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in Dec, Big DELTA Capping
- With a third of the review period yet to go, we forecast 2 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in December.
- Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
- The forecast adds have moved higher and outperformed the index while the forecast deletes have drifted lower over the last 6 months.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple’s Macbook Windfall; Yageo’s Rally; TSMC’s Massive Rare Earth Stockpile
- Windows 10’s End-of-Life Becomes Apple’s Windfall as Second Fastest Growing Computer Brand
- Eyes on Yageo Results Coming October 30 After 35% 1-Week Surge
- China Tightens Rare Earth Grip: TSMC Says It’s Prepared with Inventory
Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Legal Developments: WNDR, ABCP, STAA, GLXZ, PLYM, ASLI:L
- Robinhood’s acquisition of WonderFi Technologies at C$0.36/share has a current spread of 14%, with closing expected soon.
- Ambase is litigating against developers over a $150m Equity Put Right, with court opposition due by 11/18/25.
- Plymouth Industrial REIT announced a $22/share acquisition by Makakora Management, with a 30-day go-shop period included.
Qualcomm’s Weird AI Announcement
- Qualcomm is a great, very profitable firm, with a critical vulnerability: 75% of revenues come from Mobile market. Auto has been growing nicely but that’s 10% of revenue.
- Qualcomm has been looking for a large market to diversify into and has been working for 10 years on Server CPU. Not successful so far.
- Qualcomm has 2 AI chips which are in non-mainstream Clouds. Now 2 new chips announced for 2026-27: AI200 AI250. That’s good but what we have yesterday is a PR announcement.
Intel Inside the Foundry Race — Will 18A & 14A Nodes Change Everything?
- Intel Corporation presented a mixed financial and strategic outlook following its third-quarter performance.
- A notable outcome is the fourth consecutive quarter of results surpassing revenue guidance, reaching $13.7 billion, up 6% sequentially, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 40%, higher than expected by four percentage points.
- This performance is attributed to robust demand and effective cost management, though tempered by capacity constraints, particularly on Intel 10 and Intel 7 processes.
Groww Pre-IPO – Scaling Fast in a Competitive Market
- Groww (1573648D IN) is looking to raise up to US$736m in its upcoming India IPO.
- Groww, officially called Billionbrains Garage Ventures,is a direct-to-customer digital investment platform providing financial products and services, where customers can invest/ trade in stocks, derivatives, bonds, mutual funds and other products.
- In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.
Via Transportation (VIA US): US Index Inclusion in 2025; Going Global in 2026
- Via Transportation (VIA US) went public on 12 September 2025 on the NYSE and has a current market cap of more than $4bn.
- Inclusion in US indices is expected in December 2025, as the security meets eligibility criteria ahead of the lock-up expiry.
- Inclusion in Global indices is expected in 2026 with a potential delay due to free float and float cap constraints.
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