In today’s briefing:
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Short Setup, ASE ADR at Historically Rare Discount
- TechChain Insights: Taiwan’s Battery Cell Moment? USA & EU Supply Chain Under Strategic Pressure
- Teradyne Transforms Robotics with U.S. Manufacturing Push & Operational Breakthroughs!
- PayPal Holdings: Enhancement in Branded Checkout, Payment Systems & Other Major Drivers!
- Seagate Technology: Initiation of Coverage- HAMR Technology Advancement
- LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure
- Figma (FIG.US): The Overhang From a Partial Early Lock-Up Release Is Estimated To Be At Least $1B
- Corning’s Dual Play in Solar & Auto Glass—Can This Strategy Ignite the Next Growth Supercycle?
- Spotify Technology: Expanding Audiobook and Video Content Formats To Up Their GAME!
- Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Short Setup, ASE ADR at Historically Rare Discount
- TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Continued Opportunity to Short the ADR Premium
- UMC: -0.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
- ASE: -1.5% Discount; Historically Rare Discount Presents Opportunity to Long the ADR Spread
TechChain Insights: Taiwan’s Battery Cell Moment? USA & EU Supply Chain Under Strategic Pressure
- Battery cells are the new chokepoint in the global clean energy supply chain, with China still controlling 75%+ of global capacity and exporting under increasingly restrictive terms.
- Taiwan is emerging as a high-trust, high-precision hub for advanced cell manufacturing, applying its semiconductor model to batteries.
- With pouch cells gaining traction across drones, robotics, and compact mobility, Taiwan’s lab-to-fab advantage positions it as a future anchor of the U.S. and European energy ecosystems.
Teradyne Transforms Robotics with U.S. Manufacturing Push & Operational Breakthroughs!
- Teradyne, Inc. reported second-quarter results that showed a sequential and year-over-year improvement in its core business areas, led by strong demand in AI compute-related segments.
- The company posted secondquarter revenue of $652 million and non-GAAP EPS of $0.57, both above the midpoint of guidance.
- Semi Test revenue was $492 million, including $397 million from System-on-Chip (SOC) testing and $61 million from Memory.
PayPal Holdings: Enhancement in Branded Checkout, Payment Systems & Other Major Drivers!
- PayPal Holdings, Inc. delivered mixed results for the second quarter of 2025, displaying both strong growth in certain key segments as well as some challenges.
- The positive highlights from their results include continued profitability and expanding transaction volumes, driven by strategic initiatives across their platforms.
- PayPal’s transaction margin dollars increased by 8% excluding interest on customer balances, marking their sixth consecutive quarter of profitable growth, and non-GAAP earnings per share surged by 18% year-over-year.
Seagate Technology: Initiation of Coverage- HAMR Technology Advancement
- Seagate Technology reported a strong performance for the fiscal fourth quarter and the entire fiscal year 2025, characterized by significant year-over-year growth in key financial metrics.
- The company’s results highlighted a 30% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue and record gross margins, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of gross margin improvement.
- This performance was attributed to increased adoption of Seagate’s heatassisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology and a robust demand for nearline products in global cloud markets.
LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure
- LRCX reported FY 25Q4 revenues of $5.17 billion, + 10% QoQ, + 33% YoY and up $170 million from the guided midpoint.
- For FY 2025 as a whole, revenue amounted to $18.44 billion, up 23% YoY and their highest ever annual revenue, exceeding the previous record by roughly $1 billion.
- China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That’s a concern..
Figma (FIG.US): The Overhang From a Partial Early Lock-Up Release Is Estimated To Be At Least $1B
- Figma Inc. has successfully completed its US IPO in July and sold ~36.9M Class A shares at $33.00 per share, above the marketed price range.
- The company’s partial early lock-up release to occur on the second trading day immediately following public release of earnings for the second quarter of FY25.
- I expect certain share price and other conditions will be satisfied for a lock-up release of some ~11.4M Class A shares held by Figma’s current employees and other service providers.
Corning’s Dual Play in Solar & Auto Glass—Can This Strategy Ignite the Next Growth Supercycle?
- Corning Incorporated delivered solid results for the second quarter of 2025, showcasing both challenges and opportunities that suggest a nuanced outlook for investors.
- The company achieved record sales of $4 billion, representing a 12% growth year-over-year, and an earnings per share (EPS) increase of 28% to $0.60.
- The operating margin expanded by 160 basis points to 19%, contributing to a return on invested capital of 13.1%.
Spotify Technology: Expanding Audiobook and Video Content Formats To Up Their GAME!
- Spotify’s recent performance demonstrated both progress and challenges, outlining a mixed yet strategic path forward.
- The company’s impressive growth metrics in user engagement and subscription numbers stood out, particularly in Europe, where Spotify surpassed 100 million subscribers.
- The total Monthly Active Users (MAUs) reached nearly 700 million, with the subscribers exceeding expectations by 3 million.
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report
- GBL’s discount to NAV is compressing but remains wide versus peers — buybacks, portfolio moves, and dividends hint at a valuation shift.
- Rio Tinto’s Australia-UK dual listing still trades at a premium — mean reversion potential remains as unification chatter simmers beneath the surface.
- Vivendi’s looming mandatory offer from Bolloré reshapes stub trade dynamics — a narrowing discount points to accelerating corporate resolution.
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