In today’s briefing:
- [Japan M&A] – KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal
- My Take on Samsung’s Big Foundry Deal with Tesla
- Samsung Electronics Clinches a Huge Chip Contract from Tesla
- Figma Inc (FIG): Range Boosted As Blow-Out Demand Comes in for High-Profile Software IPO
- Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): IPO Facing Challenges, Revenue Growth Stagnant Amidst Changes to Business
- Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Vs. Micron — Different Speeds & Focus, Same Structural Shift
- Ono Sokki (6858 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update
- Manhattan Associates: Initiation of Coverage- Surging Ahead with 22% Cloud Growth—Is This Just the Beginning?
- Pegasystems Partners with AWS & Bets Big on GenAI—Is This the Next Tech Breakout?
- Readcloud Ltd – Driving growth through schools
[Japan M&A] – KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal
- In December-2024, this deal was mooted and it came out as expected. But the implied growth in management forecasts was higher than expected so the price came in quite light.
- In March when the deal was announced, it seemed like a tough call, but three weeks later Value Act decided they would tender, but would reinvest in the back end.
- The deal is now approved, and launches tomorrow. It gets done, I expect, but it is not a model deal other than being one showing the loopholes available to buyers.
My Take on Samsung’s Big Foundry Deal with Tesla
- The A16 chip Samsung fabs is mainly for real-time inference in Tesla’s FSD cars, not data-center training, which remains dominated by Dojo and NVIDIA hardware.
- If Tesla’s deal includes AI chips with HBM, it’s a major catalyst; if just A16, it’s not proof HBM yield issues are solved.
- Tesla’s deal isn’t a sure sign Samsung’s HBM4 passed NVIDIA’s qual tests, but it’s a key reference boosting market hype—time to consider a Samsung long, SK Hynix short setup.
Samsung Electronics Clinches a Huge Chip Contract from Tesla
- On 28 July, it was reported that Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) clinched a huge chip contract worth $16.5 billion from Tesla (TSLA US).
- This is a major win for Samsung Electronics since it is one of the largest foundry orders for the company from a single customer in the past decade.
- Samsung Electronics is trading at attractive valuations. It is trading at P/E of 12.3x, P/B of 1.0x, and EV/EBITDA of 3.6x in 2026, based on consensus estimates.
Figma Inc (FIG): Range Boosted As Blow-Out Demand Comes in for High-Profile Software IPO
- Figma increased its range from $25-$28 to $30-$32 on Monday morning. The company is still offering 36.9mm shares and is scheduled to debut on July 31st.
- One of our sources stated that the amount of orders in this software IPO exceed 30-times the offering size.
- The large customer base, excellent margins and revenue growth in combination with management that continues to reinvest in the business gives us strong conviction on this IPO.
Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): IPO Facing Challenges, Revenue Growth Stagnant Amidst Changes to Business
- The company is forecasting a slow-down in growth based on moving a large portion of its business away from mainland China.
- While order flow has come in steady for this IPO, some of our sources are taking a ‘wait-and-see’ approach.
- The valuation is not aggressive, the smaller cash raise is manageable but there are still many questions about this company as they enter the public markets.
Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Vs. Micron — Different Speeds & Focus, Same Structural Shift
- From Cycles to Systems: Memory’s Pivot to Strategic AI Infrastructure
- SK Hynix Leads in HBM4 Execution Thus Far; But How This Next HBM Advancement is Carved Up Remains to Be Seen
- Conclusion: Memory Market Becoming Less Commoditized and More Specialized into Advanced Categories
Ono Sokki (6858 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update
- Orders increased by 4.4% YoY to JPY7.4bn, with Measuring Equipment orders at JPY2.2bn and Custom Order Test Equipment at JPY5.2bn.
- Sales rose 24.8% YoY to JPY6.3bn, despite project postponements, with a gross profit margin decline of 1.1pp to 43.0%.
- Operating loss narrowed by JPY398mn YoY, while net loss expanded by JPY1.0bn due to absence of extraordinary gains.
Manhattan Associates: Initiation of Coverage- Surging Ahead with 22% Cloud Growth—Is This Just the Beginning?
- Manhattan Associates delivered a robust performance in the second quarter of 2025, with financial results surpassing expectations.
- The company reported total revenue of $272 million, representing a 3% increase from the previous year.
- A key driver was the impressive 22% growth in cloud revenue, which reached $100 million.
Pegasystems Partners with AWS & Bets Big on GenAI—Is This the Next Tech Breakout?
- Pegasystems reported its second-quarter 2025 financial performance, showing several positives and some challenges.
- The company has illustrated a promising trajectory with the implementation of its AI strategy and its effects on both revenue and customer engagement.
- A key highlight is the company’s annual contract value (ACV) growth, which increased by 16% year-over-year as reported and 14% in constant currency.
Readcloud Ltd – Driving growth through schools
- ReadCloud Limited (ASX:RCL) services the education sector through the provision of digital learning content, proprietary interactive technology, and support for students and educators.
- The company delivered a solid June quarter, recording a 35% increase in cash receipts over the previous corresponding period (pcp) to $4.6m and maintaining disciplined cost control at the operating level.
- Its VET-in-Schools segment continues to grow strongly with a 27% revenue uplift and high gross margins (>90%) to date in FY25.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
