In today’s briefing:
- It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings
- Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Updates: Good Set Up For 2025
- Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off
- SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025
It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings
- Apple (AAPL US) has been downtrending for the past 4 weeks, reaching deeply oversold levels on both our TIME and PRICE quantitative models. Our models are flashing a BUY signal.
- On January 30th Apple (AAPL US) will release its quarterly earnings: despite the stock’s current underperformance, most analysts remain optimistic about Apple’s future.
- Recently, US President’s Trump announced that Apple was planning a “massive investment” in the U.S. This was part of Trump’s initiative to accelerate major corporate investments in the country.
Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Updates: Good Set Up For 2025
- This is a follow-up to our initiation on Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN): Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner, in which we provide some positive updates.
- The company guided a full-year copper production of 660-700k for FY25 (in line with expectations) and slightly higher gross YoY costs at the upper end (but better than street expectations).
- The long-term production plan of 900,000 tons by 2027 puts it under 5x EV-EBITDA for FY27 at spot prices (vs. the current 7.8x).
Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off
- I had a chance to speak to CompoSecure investor relations last week about its imminent spin-off (full notes below) of Resolute Holdings.
- The biggest takeaways are: 1) Resolute Holdings’ only M&A consulting client will be CompoSecure (I had initially thought it could/would focus on other clients).
- 2) The ultimate goal for Resolute is to be a high margin alternative asset manager. 3) Resolute is a taxable spin-off and so CMPO will not be “hyping” the spin-off given CMPO will have to pay taxes based on Resolute’s initiation valuation.
SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025
- SailPoint, a pioneer and leader in identity industry with the best identity governance product, filed to go public in January.
- Thoma Bravo-backed technology company has a best-in-class product within a large market opportunity. They secure large enterprises and grow at scale.
- SailPoint has completed its first IPO in 2017 and raised =$160M. Then, the company was reacquired by Thoma Bravo and now they plan to reportedly go public.
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