In today’s briefing:
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case
- Chagee Pre-IPO – Market Leading Growth but Showing Signs of Fatigue
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 31 March
- Intel Vision Conf: New CEO Mr. TAN Does Not Hide that It Will Be Tough to Fix Intel
- TESLA’S Outlook After Rumors Elon Musk Will Step Back from DOGE
- Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – The Business Model, the Concerns Behind and Valuation Outlook
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 31 March
- Copa Airlines’ Bold Expansion Plan: 13 New Jets, Massive Profits, & Unstoppable Growth!
- Maximus Doubles Down on AI With A Bold New Accelerator — Is This The Buy Signal Investors Have Been Waiting For?
- Advanced Energy Industries: The 5 Major Challenges That Can Hinder Growth In 2025! Major Drivers
Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
- According to iResearch, as of December 31, 2024, Chagee was the largest premium freshly made tea drink brand in China by the number of stores.
- The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.
Chagee Pre-IPO – Market Leading Growth but Showing Signs of Fatigue
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.
- Chagee is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
- In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 31 March
- US base oils export price-discount to US domestic prices stays narrower in Q1 2025 vs year-earlier.
- Narrower export price-discount points to more manageable supply surplus at end-2024 and early this year, when domestic demand faced seasonal slowdown.
- More manageable supply surplus follows firm export volumes through H2 2024 and early this year.
Intel Vision Conf: New CEO Mr. TAN Does Not Hide that It Will Be Tough to Fix Intel
- CEO Mr TAN confronts what’s wrong: Intel needs better product performance, to listen to the market needs. Intel needs Foundry processes that support customers’ designs. Not the other way around.
- Product presentation very off-base: robotaxi, AI-PC, Gaudi 3 is back as Intel’s AI strategy. Foundry non-announcement: 18A risk production is starting – of course it is, otherwise 18A is flawed.
- Consensus is expecting a swift turnaround in 2026-27. There is currently no reason to believe this. On these rosy expectations, the stock trades at 19x 2026 EPS.
TESLA’S Outlook After Rumors Elon Musk Will Step Back from DOGE
- Politico just published a report saying that Elon Musk is about to Step Back from DOGE, if true, this could impact somehow Tesla (TSLA US) stock price.
- Death threats and the spate vandalism directed at Tesla (TSLA US)‘s cars, plus Musk being viewed as a potential political liability by members of the Trump Administration are the drivers.
- Tesla (TSLA US) brand has been heavily damaged by Musk involvement in politics, sales are falling gobally and competitors like BYD (1211 HK) are rising. The stock is short-term OVERBOUGHT.
Pre-IPO Chagee Holdings – The Business Model, the Concerns Behind and Valuation Outlook
- Chagee adopts the “1+1+9+N” business model, which ensures the successful replication of the single store model. However, we saw performance decline in 2024, and future performance growth sustainability is uncertain.
- In terms of valuation, comparable companies include Starbucks and MIXUE. We think valuation of Chagee should be lower than MIXUE and Starbucks as both have proved themselves in the industry.
- Future growth would inevitably slow down. Investors may need more ‘safety margins’ on valuation because despite short-term strong demand, investors need to be alert to the performance validation after IPO.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 31 March
- Global base oils prices slip relative to firmer feedstock/competing fuel prices.
- Base oils margins in most markets remain at levels that point to balanced-to-tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain higher output.
- FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs gasoil prices.
Copa Airlines’ Bold Expansion Plan: 13 New Jets, Massive Profits, & Unstoppable Growth!
- Copa Holdings delivered a mixed yet robust performance in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, illustrating its resilience and operational efficiency in a fluctuating market.
- Positively, the company reported an operating margin of 21.9% for the year, which reflects consistent execution of its business model focused on cost efficiency and operational excellence.
- An increase in capacity by 8.6% year-over-year was aligned with previous guidance.
Maximus Doubles Down on AI With A Bold New Accelerator — Is This The Buy Signal Investors Have Been Waiting For?
- The recent earnings results for Maximus Inc. portray a complex but promising landscape for the company, revealing both opportunities and challenges.
- Financially, Maximus reported revenue of $1.40 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, reflecting a 5.7% year-over-year growth, with an organic growth rate of 6.3%.
- The U.S. Federal Services segment was a primary growth driver with a 15.3% increase in revenues, suggesting strong performance in areas like clinical assessments and customer service programs.
Advanced Energy Industries: The 5 Major Challenges That Can Hinder Growth In 2025! Major Drivers
- Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, demonstrating a strong finish to the year after a rocky start.
- The company achieved notable highlights, with Q4 revenue reaching $450 million, an 11% increase sequentially and 3% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in semiconductor and data center computing markets.
- Advanced Energy’s semiconductor revenue, at $227 million, marked a 15% sequential increase and 19% year-over-year growth.
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