In today’s briefing:
- Chagee IPO Lockup: US$2.8bn Lockup Release; XVC Likely to Begin Monetization
- Paypal & Google Are Quietly Launching The Future Of Commerce—Your Wallet Just Got Smarter!
- Microsoft’s New AI Can Give Health Advice—And Harvard Is Backing It!
- Mosaic Crashes On Plant Woes — But One Fix Could Spark A Big Rebound!
- SSI Newsletter Highlights: Investment Ideas, Merger Arbitrage Opportunities, and Key Transactions
- J&J’s Pursuit of Protagonist Therapeutics: A Strategic Move To Reinforce Immunology Leadership Post-Stelara!
- Bristol Myers’ $1.5 Billion RNA Gamble: Could Orbital Therapeutics Rewire Its Future?
- Confluent Up For Grabs? AI Infrastructure Giant Eyes Sale Amid Industry Frenzy!
- Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 13 October
- Verizon’s Starry Acquisition: The $5G Shortcut Wall Street Didn’t See Coming!
Chagee IPO Lockup: US$2.8bn Lockup Release; XVC Likely to Begin Monetization
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US) raised US$411m from its US IPO in April 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
- Chagee is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Paypal & Google Are Quietly Launching The Future Of Commerce—Your Wallet Just Got Smarter!
- The commerce landscape is about to undergo a structural transformation as PayPal and Alphabet’s Google join forces in a multi-pronged AI-driven payments partnership launching in Q4 2025.
- Announced in September, the alliance will embed PayPal’s checkout experience directly into Google’s ecosystem—across Google Cloud, Google Ads, Google Play, and select consumer-facing properties.
- At the same time, the two companies are co-developing AI frameworks to power agent-led transactions, where autonomous digital agents make purchases on a user’s behalf using PayPal data.
Microsoft’s New AI Can Give Health Advice—And Harvard Is Backing It!
- Microsoft is making a bold move into the healthcare AI space, partnering with Harvard Medical School to improve the reliability of medical advice generated by its Copilot assistant.
- The collaboration, set to be unveiled with an update to Copilot as early as this month, integrates health content from Harvard Health Publishing.
- This step reflects Microsoft’s broader ambitions to establish Copilot as a leading AI assistant not just in productivity software but in areas demanding high accuracy and trust—like healthcare.
Mosaic Crashes On Plant Woes — But One Fix Could Spark A Big Rebound!
- Shares of fertilizer giant Mosaic Co. have been under significant pressure as the company grapples with dual setbacks — unplanned phosphate plant outages and ongoing macroeconomic headwinds tied to U.S. trade tariffs.
- On October 10, the company disclosed a meaningful production shortfall in its phosphate segment for Q3 2025, citing mechanical issues and utility interruptions that pushed preliminary volumes down to just 1.7 million tons, well below expectations.
- This comes on top of a challenging landscape in which U.S. tariffs have eroded the competitiveness of American fertilizer exports.
SSI Newsletter Highlights: Investment Ideas, Merger Arbitrage Opportunities, and Key Transactions
- Lennar Corporation plans to divest its remaining 20% stake in Millrose Properties to shareholders with a 6.38% premium.
- Falcon Oil & Gas agreed to sell assets to TBN, distributing TBN shares to shareholders at a 0.00687x ratio.
- Dickson Concepts trades at a 40% discount to net cash, with potential privatization efforts by founder Dickson Poon.
J&J’s Pursuit of Protagonist Therapeutics: A Strategic Move To Reinforce Immunology Leadership Post-Stelara!
- As Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) faces intensifying competition in the immunology landscape, recent reports indicate the healthcare behemoth is exploring the acquisition of Protagonist Therapeutics, a biotechnology firm currently collaborating with JNJ on the development of icotrokinra, a novel oral therapy targeting immune diseases like plaque psoriasis and ulcerative colitis.
- The news has driven Protagonist’s stock up nearly 30%, valuing the company at around $4.2 billion.
- JNJ already holds exclusive commercialization rights to icotrokinra, which analysts at Leerink Partners project could generate peak global sales of $9.5 billion.
Bristol Myers’ $1.5 Billion RNA Gamble: Could Orbital Therapeutics Rewire Its Future?
- Bristol Myers Squibb has made headlines once again—this time with its $1.5 billion all-cash agreement to acquire Orbital Therapeutics, a privately held biotechnology company pioneering nextgeneration RNA therapies.
- The deal represents a significant move by Bristol to bolster its innovation pipeline amid looming patent expirations, increased payer scrutiny, and a shifting regulatory landscape.
- Orbital Therapeutics’ platform, which integrates circular and linear RNA engineering with AI-driven design and advanced lipid nanoparticle delivery, is anchored by its lead candidate OTX-201—an RNA immunotherapy targeting autoimmune disease via B cell depletion.
Confluent Up For Grabs? AI Infrastructure Giant Eyes Sale Amid Industry Frenzy!
- Confluent, a leading provider of real-time data streaming infrastructure, has reportedly initiated a sale process amid renewed takeover interest from private equity firms and strategic technology buyers.
- According to Reuters, the company is working with an investment bank to explore options, though discussions remain in early stages with no guarantee of a deal.
- The interest comes as Confluent navigates a turbulent stretch in its public market journey—its stock plunged 33% in July 2025 after losing a major AI-native customer, yet it remains an essential enabler of AI-driven applications, processing vast volumes of real-time data.
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 13 October
- US base oils demand could be steadier amid rangebound prices and signs of more muted pressure from any surplus supply.
- US base oils demand typically rises in month of October from September, before falling in month of November.
- Demand could be lower than usual as buyers and distributors work down stocks built up as buffer against weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.
Verizon’s Starry Acquisition: The $5G Shortcut Wall Street Didn’t See Coming!
- U.S. telecom giant Verizon has announced its acquisition of Starry, a smaller broadband internet provider focused on multi-dwelling units (MDUs) and urban communities, in a move that could signal a strategic expansion of its fixed wireless access (FWA) capabilities.
- The acquisition, for an undisclosed sum, comes on the heels of a robust Q2 2025 earnings report where Verizon demonstrated strength in wireless service revenue and free cash flow, raised its full-year EBITDA and EPS guidance, and reaffirmed its commitment to scaling broadband through both fiber and FWA.
- Starry’s proprietary millimeter wave technology, which enables low-cost, rapid deployment in dense urban areas, serves nearly 100,000 MDU customers in Boston, New York, Los Angeles, Denver, and Washington, D.C. Verizon executives see this as a strategic opportunity to deepen penetration in hard-to-serve urban segments while leveraging Starry’s customer satisfaction metrics and deployment efficiencies.
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