In today’s briefing:
- Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran
- Medtronic Plc. (NYSE: MDT) To Separate Its Diabetes Business
- AMD Claims Its New GPU Is on Par with Nvidia, Its Software Platform ROCm Beats CUDA for Inference.
- Crypto ETFs: Global Landscape, Market Dynamics, and Outlook
- Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP): Profitable Insolvency Account Manager Sets Terms for IPO
- UHAL: U-Haul Holding Company Reports 4Q and full-year FY2025 Results. Revenues were above expectations in the seasonally slow 4Q
- LE: Snapping the Catalog: Tote Girls Rule; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran
- A quick look at the tactical forecast models for some key markets impacted by the Israeli attack to Iran on June 13th.
- We analyze: Crude Oil Futures (CL1 COM COMDTY) , Gold Futures (GOLD COMDTY) , Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) , Nikkei 225 Index, Hang Seng Index and NIFTY Index
- Keep in mind that high volatility can push easily a market into the model’s tails, and forecasts in tails area rely on less data (i.e. less accurate).
Medtronic Plc. (NYSE: MDT) To Separate Its Diabetes Business
- The separation will occur via a two step transaction – an initial minority IPO carve-out followed by a split-off of the remaining stake.
- Two-Step separation allows investors an early opportunity to assess and value the Diabetes business independently, while Medtronic ultimately divests full ownership over time. Diabetes business could be valued between $8-$11B.
- The move will allow Medtronic to focus on its faster-growing, higher-margin businesses such as pulsed field ablation and renal denervation.
AMD Claims Its New GPU Is on Par with Nvidia, Its Software Platform ROCm Beats CUDA for Inference.
- AMD launched MI300-355. AMD claims that for training MI355 is on par with Nvidia’s B200. For inference MI355 generates more token per $, has a better TCO. MI350 shipped May-25
- AI addressable market: AMD maintains its $500bn by 2028 estimate, 60% Cagr “or exceeding that”. Inference will grow faster, over 80% Cagr.
- AMD stock is cheap, has bottomed out, the roadmap is more competitive, etc. For investors looking for an alternative to Nvidia and TSMC, AMD is the best alternative imo.
Crypto ETFs: Global Landscape, Market Dynamics, and Outlook
- Significant Growth & Untapped Potential: While global crypto ETF AUM has reached $168.3B, this represents a small fraction of the $14.8T global ETF market and the $128T total global AUM, indicating a vast addressable market and substantial room for future expansion. We project the global crypto ETF AUM to potentially exceed $1T in five years, over 6x the current level.
- US Dominance in AUM, Europe in Variety: The US leads globally with $144.3B in crypto ETF AUM (85.7% market share), largely driven by the successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Europe, while smaller in AUM ($15.3B), offers a wider array of altcoin ETFs. Canada and Hong Kong have also emerged as important regional hubs.
Quantitative Spotlight on US Market Dynamics: Daily net flows into spot ETFs show a positive but modest correlation with Bitcoin price changes (0.34) and a very weak correlation for Ethereum (0.13). Coupled with low R-squared values, this indicates that spot ETF flows, while impacting underlying crypto price, are just one of many factors
Jefferson Capital Inc (JCAP): Profitable Insolvency Account Manager Sets Terms for IPO
- Jefferson Cap is offering 10.0mm shares at $15.00-$17.00 equating to a market cap of $972m-$1.1b and will debut on June 26th.
- The company is backed by J.C. Flowers and the majority of this IPO, 9.375mm shares, is secondary with J.C. Flowers offering 7.76mm shares and Canaccede offering 1.6mm.
- Debt buying companies have a vastly different profile than a Chime, CoreWeave or Voyager or Circle which has major, scalable tailwinds.
UHAL: U-Haul Holding Company Reports 4Q and full-year FY2025 Results. Revenues were above expectations in the seasonally slow 4Q
- U-Haul Holding Company is the parent company of U-Haul International, the world’s largest consumer truck and trailer rental company.
- U-Haul is also the third largest self-storage operator in North America.
- U-Haul benefited from a step up in top-line demand for self-moving services during the pandemic, namely in FY2021 & FY2022.
LE: Snapping the Catalog: Tote Girls Rule; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Lands’ End as we review the June catalog.
- Picking up on a theme from last month, the June catalog focus is on the Lands’ End “tote girl.” The company has continued to leverage the popularity of their totes (the most purchases Lands’ End item) and an overall trend towards personalization and embellishment, to capture a younger customer and drive multiple item purchases.
- For June, the focus remains on swimwear (now at 50% off), and great new looks for the Lands’; End summer lifestyle, from a new linen collection, dresses, the emerging swim dress category and fitted tops and cotton sweaters.
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